05/04/2023: Daniel Nettle

[GabeNicholson]

Comment below with a well-developed question or comment about the reading for this week's workshop.

If you would really like to ask your question in person, please place two exclamation points before your question to signal that you really want to ask it.

Please post your question by Tuesday of the coming week, at 11:59 PM. We will also ask you all to upvote questions that you think were particularly good. There may be prizes for top question-askers.

[hsinkengling]

Hi Prof. Nettle,

Thanks for sharing your work with us. My question is about the external validity of the model.

How do you justify the external validity of a foraging model? What exactly does the crime of exploitation represent in real-world settings? (Is it just stealing, or does an ultra-rich CEO exploiting his workers also count as exploitation? What kinds of crime/non-crime activities would it be best positioned to explain?)

In the discussion, you did mention that the model best fits "social groups with frequent new interactions between strangers, which is appropriate since the phenomena under investigated are documented for commercial and industrial societies". Concretely, what would the options of lone foraging, cooperation, and exploitation look like in a real-world setting?

[sdbaier]

Dear Professor Nettle,

Interesting read on modeling the interaction of inequality and crime through the micro-foundations of individual behavior. I am curious about the role of space, as much of crime is spatially dependent, and much of inequality is spatially clustered. You mentioned that you included surrounding populations in the decision-making process of individual agents. I scanned through your code but could not figure out how you exactly went about it.

• How did you conceptualize space in the model?
• How did you formally implement space in the code?
• How dependent are the observed patterns of crime and inequality on your conceptualization (and implementation) of space?

[borlasekn]

Hi Prof. Nettle,

Thanks for sharing your work. I was wondering how you would use the two conditions to explain white-collar crimes? It seems like it is possibly the fear of the (2) condition which causes white collar crimes, but I wonder how the first condition might factor into this as well? Thanks!

[xinyi030]

Hi Prof. Nettle,

Thanks for sharing your work. Considering the model's focus on resource distribution and desperation thresholds, how might incorporating factors such as cultural norms, education, and individual psychological differences enhance our understanding of cooperation and exploitation dynamics in society? Thanks!

[zhiqianc]

Hi Dr. Daniel Nettle, Thanks for sharing with us. I have two main questions. What are the main findings of the paper, and how do they contribute to our understanding of the relationship between inequality and crime? How do the authors use computational and experimental methods to investigate this relationship, and what are the strengths and limitations of these methods?

[yuzhouw313]

Dear Professor Nettle, Thank you for sharing your work with us! I found it surprising to see the likelihood of people committing crimes despite the severity of punishment or sanctions when society imposes an exterior condition above the desperation threshold. I am convinced by your use of modeling and simulation based on individual action and population trends, and I can see the relation between trust and overall societal conditions. However, I am curious to know more about how your research connects to inequality.

Additionally, I am interested in hearing your proposals on how to improve a society that is above the desperation threshold. What do you think are some effective measures that can be taken to address this issue?

Once again, thank you for sharing your insights with us, and I look forward to hearing more about your research on Thursday.

[bningdling]

Hi Prof. Nettle, thank you very much for sharing your work. You mentioned that in your simulations, more unequal populations produced lower levels of trust. I'm curious about the mechanism behind this effect. Could you elaborate on how individuals in these populations develop low trust in others, and whether there are any factors that might mitigate this effect?

[pranathiiyer]

Hi prof Nettle, It makes sense that poverty is one of the main drivers of crime or is highly associated with crime. How do you think your model differs or helps study the problem better compared to ethnographic studies that posit how poverty and crime influence each other? How do you think this idea of the 'desperation threshold' helps us to understand poverty and crime better than we already know it?

[secorey]

Hi Professor Nettle, Thank you for coming to present—I thought it was a fascinating paper. The model you generated makes a lot of sense for explaining increases in crime/exploitation, but I'm wondering if you have seen any cultures/communities that do not follow this pattern? In other words, what might be some cultural variables that affect this relationship between inequality and exploitation? Sam

[LynetteDang]

Hi Prof. Nettle, thank you very much for sharing your work, I am wondering what computational and experimental evidence are adaquate to support the relationship between economic inequality, desperation, and crime?

[xin2006]

Hi Professor Nettle, thanks for sharing the interesting work! I am curious how could we make use of the different effect between increasing social mobility and increasing punishment severity? How can we balance it in out real life?

[ValAlvernUChic]

Hi Prof Nettle,

As a few of my classmates have already alluded to, I was wondering how your results supplement other sociology and social work papers that have asserted this link between "material scarcity", poverty, and crime? How would you measure the "desperation threshold" in communities? Do we risk making barriers to social services and welfare higher if we were to implement a mechanism to measure the "desperation threshold"? Does this model at all aid in how exactly we can distribute resources to mitigate the problem?

[zoeyjiao1104]

Hi Professor Nettle,

Thanks for sharing your work. I was wondering about what policy implications can be drawn from the model and experimental results in terms of addressing issues of material scarcity, economic inequality, and crime rates? Thank you!

[helyap]

Hi Professor Nettle,

Thank you for sharing your work with us. The conceptualization of the desperation threshold is interesting. In what ways can the model be modified to include parameters specific to a specific locale's need for resources? Thanks.

[Sirius2713]

Hi Professor Nettle, thanks for sharing your research with us. I notice when the probability of punishment is not high such as 2/3 and 0.8, the probability of cooperation/exploitation is non monodic. I’m wondering why this is this way and why when the punishment probability increases, the curve becomes more linear.

[taizeyu]

Hi Professor Nettle,

Thank you for sharing your research with us. It is an excellent research. I am curious what is your next research step to explain crime and social trust fully? Thanks

[JoeHelbing]

Professor Nettle,

Love an ABM model. I'm assuming with the probabilistic based choice methods, in longer runs there is an instability factor (depending on the function) that could cause these model runs to flip between equilibriums? With a small enough sample of agents, having a probabilitistic action choice could cause pockets of cooperation to appear or disappear, or perhaps propogate outward. Curious if you looked at "transmission" of cooperation of exploitation between agents and whether choice instability was seen in the model?

[zhiyun0707]

Hi Professor Nettle, thank you for sharing your work with us! My question is that when policymakers read the paper gain insights from the results, how could they use the computational modeling results to help them implement the policy? Also, do you think there are any limitations?

[erweinstein]

Hi Professor Nettle,

Thanks for coming here to UChicago to present your very interesting work! I appreciate that your overview and explanation of motivating ideas takes the economic theory of crime--pioneered by the late Gary Becker, formerly a key leader in our economics department here--so seriously, and I think that you do a great job of explaining that theory as well as its limitations. I was wondering, if we are trying to learn lessons that might be applicable to public policy choices relating to crime, justice, and law enforcement, could your model be extended to allow for two important (in my view) real-world complications: 1) Some percent of agents make their decisions completely randomly, regardless of their optimal policy, and 2) When agents are estimating social trust, their estimates of 1-p are not unbiased, and the errors could be either random walks, or responsive to and correlating with some other aspect of the agents' environment.

I view (1) as analogous to the situation of some people who are experiencing serious mental illness (or perhaps teenagers whose brains are years away from being fully developed), who then will not act optimally when making this type of decision, but whose actions still affect their peers and/or the society they live in, and (2) as analogous to the idea that people's perceptions of social trust are (perhaps too easily) influenced by their political views, by informational echo chambers/filter bubbles, and/or by the "if it bleeds, it leads" style of media coverage of crime-related stories. For better or for worse, discussions around criminal justice policy here in Chicago are heavily affected by these two phenomena; for example, during our recent mayoral election, one of the candidates contended that ~50% of calls to emergency services (911) were related to mental illness issues (other large US cities have more like 10-20%, but Chicago could be higher), and as many other social scientists have noted, the public's perception of safety and danger in their city--particularly in political contexts like opinion polling and voting-- seems to not be anchored by the actual crime statistics.

[ddlee19]

Dear Professor Nettle, I appreciate you for sharing your research. I'm interested in knowing the reasoning behind this outcome. Can you please provide more details about how individuals in such populations tend to have reduced trust in others, and if there are any elements that could possibly lessen this impact?

[yhchou0904]

Dear Prof. Nettle,

Thank you for sharing your research with us. The research shows us a possible explanation of why people would choose to commit a crime and how they decide not to trust each other. The question I have is related to the exceptions. Are there any factors, e.g., cultural background or ethnic/religious effect, that could possibly break this relationship? If yes, what influence would they have?

[HongzhangXie]

Dear Professor Nettle, thank you very much for sharing the interesting criminal economics study. I am very interested in the two equivalence of A1 and B1 on the page five. A1 is a great model to explain why many countries are in the poverty trap. So I am curious whether the conclusions in the model can be used to explain the middle-income trap?

[sushanz]

Hello Professor Nettle, thank you for sharing! It's really interesting topics and ABM modeling is also really attractive with so many potential applications. Would you mind suggesting more models other than ABM to answer the relationship question between crimes and economics?

[lguo7]

Dear Prof. Nettle,

Thank you for sharing this attractive study! I am curious to know how the findings of this model can be applied to real-world policy solutions aimed at reducing crime and increasing trust in society. How would you consider working with policymakers?

[awaidyasin]

Hi Prof., it's always nice to see an agent-based modeling approach to economics. From what I understand, the desperation threshold in your paper is exogenously set. It would seem likely that the threshold is time-varying and, in fact, depends on some of the other variables in the model. For example, my threshold would be low if there is more trustworthiness or if the expected reward from cooperation ($\alpha$) is high enough. Can this be incorporated easily in your structure?

[y8script]

Hello Prof. Nettle,

Thank you for sharing this work. For external validity, what does the desperation threshold mean in real life? Is it the life standard to maintain basic living demands? Or is it the need to maintain certain socioeconomic status (which includes middle class or even higher status), so that exploitation could happen in situations where people are not in poverty?

[fiofiofiona]

HI Prof. Nettle, thank you for sharing your work with us. I am curious about the proportion of crimes that happen under the two conditions you proposed in the overall crime reports. Also, how would this mechanism vary across cultures?

[jiehanL]

Hi Prof. Nettle, thank you for sharing your work! I have a question about the desperation threshold that you mentioned in your presentation. How did you determine the level of resources below which it is extremely damaging to fall? Was this based on empirical data or theoretical assumptions?

[yutaili]

Hi Professor Nettle,

Thanks for sharing your work. My question about this paper is that how might the model's predictions and your conclusions change when considering the influence of cultural diversity and the potential existence of distinct subpopulations with different norms and values (lower life expectancy maybe)? Would the relationships between inequality, deprivation, crime, and trust still hold in such contexts, or could cultural factors lead to alternative outcomes? Thanks.

[JunoWuu]

Hello Professor Nettle, thank you for sharing! Since you mentioned that people are more likely to still when the resources drop down below a point. I wonder whether this point would fluctuate when the society is better organized or disciplined or less.

[javad-e]

Thank you so much for presenting your work at our workshop, Prof. Nettle! The results from the model are very interesting. I was wondering if you could discuss the intuition behind the findings. In particular, I am a little bit confused about why exploiting is not the optimal action for individuals not close to the desperation threshold.

[linhui1020]

Hi Professor Nettle, Thanks for sharing your work. I am curious to know what implications your model and experimental findings may have insights to tackle concerns such as scarcity of resources and economic inequality.

[AlexBWilliamson]

Dear Dr. Nettle

Thank you for sharing your research with us! I was especially interested in your concept of a desperation threshold. I know that Economists sometimes include log terms in utility functions for similar reasons. The idea being that as consumption of good x increases, Ln(x) increases with decreasing marginal returns. The same is obviously true in reverse, with the additional caveat that, when x is less than 1, Ln(x) becomes very large and negative. I don't know if it would be worth trying to incorporate into your model, but it might be interesting to try and include this form of a utility function while representing the desperation threshold of an agent.

[Hongkai040]

Hi Professor Nettle, Thanks for sharing your work! The model is interesting. I wonder whether you plan to align the model with empirical research. And how might you expect the influence of learning processes and networks on the topic you have explored which I think may not be well developed in your model?

[ChongyuFang]

Hi Prof. Nettle, it is great to see your work! In the paper, can you explain how the Adam optimizer works and why it was chosen for this task?

[AlexPrizzy]

Thanks for presenting at our workshop, Daniel! I'm wondering if you can incorporate cultural effects in this model. Such that the poverty threshold for risk taking behavior is modulated by cultural background. Could risk taking occur when desperation threshold hasn't been met in a culture which glorifies crime? Could individuals be risk aversive when the desperation threshold has been met if their cultural beliefs oppose it?

[mintaow]

Hello Professor Nettle, thank you for sharing your research with us. I was wondering if you considered any other types of crimes in the model besides exploitation and cooperation, such as violent crimes or property crimes. If so, how do these types of crimes interact with each other in the model?

[yjhuang99]

Hi Prof. Nettle, Thanks for coming to share your research with us! The model is very interesting, especially the analogy of foraging together, alone, and exploiting a cooperative group. I am wondering how your work can be applied to society (e.g. case study), and/or when cultural or institutional factors also affect the decisions.

[YLHan97]

Hi Prof. Nettle, Thank you for sharing your research with us! I have the following questions:

1. How does the strain theory explain the relationship between inequality and crime? Are there any limitations to this theory in explaining crime rates in different societies?
2. The article suggests that "relative deprivation" is a key factor that drives individuals to commit crimes. Can you provide examples of policies or interventions that can address this issue and reduce crime rates in low-income communities?

[tangn121]

Hello Professor Nettle, thanks for sharing your work! My questions are how do you plan to test the model in a real-world setting and do you have any thoughts on addressing the concept of desperation threshold in policy-making?

[shaangao]

Hi Prof. Nettle, this is such an insightful study! I'm particularly interested in the last part of the results where you looked at how cooperation style changes if resource inequality changes. I wonder what role individual factors play in this process, since in the real world, cooperation style changes would need to happen to each specific individual. I was thinking that having been living in a resource-unequal environment for a long time would have shaped someone's personality, conceptualization of the world, etc., which are usually stable and hinder adaptation to a changed resource landscape even if such adaptation is beneficial from a rational perspective as the modeling results suggest. How similarly do you think real-world individuals would act as the simulated agents do in turns of the processes and time course of transitioning from the poverty trap to the virtuous circle?

[jinyz1220]

Thank you so much for sharing your work! While the results suggest that risky exploitative behavior is more likely to occur when individuals are at risk of falling below a threshold of desperation, what should be considered in cases of capitalist exploitation, where individuals with significantly more resources may exploit those with fewer resources?

[cgyhumble0612]

Hi professor, thank you for sharing us with your work. I’m wondering what other fields this model can be applied for such as geopolitical issues? What conditions should be further clarified? Thank you.

[hazelchc]

Hi Prof. Nettle, thank you for sharing your work with us! I'm wondering how you define the desperation threshold, and the implications of an equal distribution of resources on productivity, social competitiveness, and efficiency. Thanks!

[beilrz]

Hello professor. Thank you for sharing the work. I was wondering do you plan to test the model empirically? if so, how would you plan to do it? Thanks.

[nijingwen]

Hi prof Nettle, Thanks for your sharing. Looking forward to meeting with you.

[ZHE-ZHANG-0213]

Hello, Professor Nettle. Thank you for sharing the work! I would like to know how your work applies to society (e.g. case studies) and/or when cultural or institutional factors also influence decision making.

[Toushirow1]

Dear Professor Nettle, thank you for sharing your research. How does the relationship between economic inequality and the desperation threshold in our model contribute to the emergence of exploitation and the subsequent decline of cooperation and trust in societies? In the context of this model, what are the implications of redistributing resources or enhancing social mobility on the overall levels of cooperation and trust, as opposed to implementing harsher punishments for exploitation?

[iefis]

Hi Professor Nettle, Thank you for sharing your interesting work with us. I'm wondering if you could elaborate more on the risk preference of agents and the desperation threshold in your model. Thank you!

[xiaowei-v]

Hi Professor Nettle, thank you for sharing! I'm curious how inequality trigger lower trust in real life. Could the model simulate people's perception of inequality, how it forms and changes and then influence people's behavior in real life?