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uchicago-computation-workshop / adam_bonica

Repository for Adam Bonica's presentation at the CSS Workshop (1/24/2019)
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Question on ideal points prediction, congressional polarization and campaign contribution #3

Open sanittawan opened 5 years ago

sanittawan commented 5 years ago

Thank you very much for such a creative paper and for presenting it to us. I am fascinated by the use of early campaign contribution data to predict ideal points, especially for nonincumbents.

Relating back to your prior work, Mapping the Ideological Marketplace and Professional Networks, Early Fundraising, and Electoral Success, I am wondering if you have observed any trends or patterns in campaign giving for both incumbents and nonincumbents. What does this work shed light on a question about congressional polarization and disappearance of "moderates"? A list of top organizational donors in table 3 in your paper seems to include a mix of donors for conservative and moderate candidates in both parties. So, it seems to me that moderates still won offices, but has there been fewer?

On a separate note, as early campaign finance data can be used to predict future voting behavior with such improved accuracy, do you think this is sufficient to undermine the notion of political donations as consumption as opposed to investment?

bhargavvader commented 5 years ago

Nice question there @sanittawan !