Comparison of GEFS-Aerosols and UFS-COCART in annual simulations

[lipan-NOAA]

• Simulation time period: September 01, 2019 to August 31, 2020; every day starts from 00z, 24-hour forecast;

• UFS-GOCART initial conditions:

  1. Chemistry: Transformed from GEFS-Aerosols simulation results for day one (September 1, 2019). It's been a warm start ever since.
  2. Meteorology: meteorology conditions are updated every 24 hours using the operational GFS output.

• Emissions: GBBEPx and CEDS 2019;

"You can visualize 201910 to 202008 daily forecast between UFS and GEFS against MERRA2 for all species at this site : https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/parthab/UFS_Aerosol/html/fv3_aod_png.html Also monthly Bias : https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/parthab/UFS_Aerosol/html/fv3_gridstat_png.html"

The biggest problem is the overestimation of OC in UFS-GOCART.

Any comments and suggestions are welcome

[lipan-NOAA]

xiaoyang provided new GB emissions. The data does not have the inconsistency between binary format and netcdf format. The 2017-2020 reprocessed GB emissions for GOCART are archived in "/lfs/h2/emc/physics/noscrub/Li.Pan/data/gocart_emissions/nexus/GBBEPx" on WCOSS2

[lipan-NOAA]

Using the new GBBEPx emissions, GEFS-Aero and UFS-Aero were re-run from September 2019 to August 2020, and the comparison of the two models is at the webpage of "https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/parthab/UFS_Aerosol/html/fv3_gridstatnew_png.html"

[lipan-NOAA]

New GBBEPx emissions improve model performance for GEFS-Aero and UFS-Aero; UFS-Aero still overestimates OC compared to GEFS-Aero

[yangfanglin]

@lipan-NOAA There are no plots after May 2020 on the webpage. Does the overestimate of OC becomes worse at longer forecast lead ? It appears there is also large seasonal variation.

[lipan-NOAA]

@yangfanglin plots after May 2020 will be posted soon. The lifetime of OC is on the order of days, so if biomass emissions are reasonably correct and there are no errors in the model, they will not accumulate incorrectly. The seasonal or monthly variation in aerosols is so large that we must use predictive aerosols as feedback to weather models.

[NeilBarton-NOAA]

@lipan-NOAA is the GEFS-Aerosols the GEFSv12 member with Aerosols?

[lipan-NOAA]

@NeilBarton-NOAA yes