Politician + Electoral Map Task List | 2008 Delimitation v1

[vrathi0]

Documentation notes can be found here #16

Summary Notes

The 2008 delimitation (exogenously) drove the probability of incumbent getting reelected during the last 2 years of their term to zero. There is ample evidence that there likely was no anticipation of this.

Tasks

• [x] Processed old pre 2008 electoral map and mapped it to the current map

Learnings/Notes:

• Number of electoral district remains unchanged. This is true for both state assembly(AC) and national parliament (PC).

• Even though number remain unchanged there is a flux as PC and AC might change their status from reserved constituency to non-reserved constituency or vice versa. There are two types of non-reserved constituencies.

• Note that the core identification assumption is that this change happens during the assembly term and is unknown to everyone beforehand. As soon as it happens, the prob. of getting reelected changes instantaneously and discontinuously (as I document below).

• At this time, I focus on PC.

• Administrative districts do not change during 2008 delimitation.

• 1 PC contains district number of ACs. 1 administrative district contains discrete number of ACs. PC can cross admin district boundaries.

• [x] Merged with election data for both pre and post period.

Learnings/Notes

• Mobility of constituencies across categories.

GEN to GEN	330
GEN to RES	43
RES to GEN	33
RES to RES	70

• Incumbent re-election rate | Baseline

  type	incumbent_count	relection_count	relection_rate (%)
  GEN	383	140	36.6
  RES(SC)	72	30	41.7
  RES(ST)	31	14	45.2
  NA	30	0	0

• Incumbent re-election rate | Baseline

  mob_cls	incumbent_count	relection_count	relection_rate (%)
  GEN to GEN	330	89	27
  GEN to RES	43	0	0
  RES to GEN	33	0	0
  RES to RES	70	25	35.7
  NA.	40	0	0

[vrathi0]

Next Steps

There are a few more metrics that can be created, listing them below.

• [ ] There is more variation in terms of overlap between old PC and new PC; new PC and admin district; if the PC lost any "key" AC; if the PC gained any key "AC". These would be nice to have at hand later on.
• [ ] Construct a similar mobility metrics for AC, already have all the data processed.

More optional steps

• [ ] THe 2008 delimitation pdf have AC level detailed demographic tables. These contain total population, backward class population. These can potentially be used to compare marginal AC/PC that got a reserved status to marginal AC/PC that did not get a reserved status. But not clear how it might be immediately useful.
• [ ] Through an entirely independent process, new administrative districts are also created sporadically. This process is not unexpected, totally intentional and therefore everyone expects and knows the outcome in advance. Regardless, worth keeping in mind in case you can figure out how to use creation of a new administrative district in the empirical strategy.