Roadmap (2019 September)

[ha0ye]

Status Check-in

• methods
  • all the forecast methods in Ward et al. 2014 are implemented
  • Steve will be contributing code for the Gaussian Process
  • permutation entropy methods (@garlanjt has cython code up at https://github.com/garlanjt/Ordinal_TSA; @pennekampster has an R implementation at https://github.com/pennekampster/intrinsic_predictability_eco)
  • mitchell o'hara-wild, rob hyndman, and earo wang have a package for extracting features from time series (see https://github.com/tidyverts/feasts)
• data
  • we have about 80k time series
  • need to check for duplicates (pulling from multiple databases that could be drawing from the same source)
  • assemble metadata, and then check for duplicates

Primary Goals

• provide guidance to researchers on selecting forecasting methods in ecology
• brief discussion of alternative frameworks

Basic approach for the analysis

• measure complexity (weighted permutation entropy, others?) and forecast skill across our collection of time series
• identify what properties affect forecast skill; how these properties can guide selection of forecast models

Action Items

• build metadata for time series datasets
  • taxon species-level if appropriate
  • sampling period (start and end times)
  • sampling frequency (annual, etc.)
  • geographical location (don't worry about preprocessing for now - keep in whatever form the original data records it as)
  • life history characteristics if they're readily available
    • lifespan
    • age at first reproduction
  • temperature variation at location of sampling
  • Frank will look at LPI and GPDD #18 #19
  • Hao will look at BioTime #20
• get prototype of GP-EDM working #21
  • get an update from Steve about this
• check R vs. cython outputs for WPE #22
  • Hao will write an initial script for this, check with Josh
• code for generating synthetic time series #23
  • Josh will look into doing this in R

Meeting Times

maintain previous schedule

• every two weeks on Fridays
• alternate between 1300 UTC and 1600 UTC
• next call is Friday, October 4 @ 1600 UTC (1200 EST)