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weecology / bbs-forecasting

Research on forecasting using Breeding Bird Survey data
MIT License
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edits regarding "no directional change" #221

Closed davharris closed 6 years ago

davharris commented 6 years ago

Would like to hear your thoughts on this.

ethanwhite commented 6 years ago

Did something go wrong here. The first edit now results in a sentence:

"While this study is restricted to breeding birds in simple baselines."

ethanwhite commented 6 years ago

Chatted with @davharris about this on Slack. I'm working on this now.

ethanwhite commented 6 years ago

I think this material is better placed near the two paragraphs that we already have discussing this to avoid breaking up the discussion of it. I've tried an alternative approach in #223 that splits off a bit of our 2nd paragraph on this topic to create a new paragraph addressing two of Review 2's comments as well as the AEs. See what you think.

sdtaylor commented 6 years ago

This sentence " we expect that long-term SDM-based forecasts will generally be at least as poor as decade-scale ones." doesn't agree with what we already said elsewhere:

In general, drivers of species richness can differ at different temporal scales (Rosenzweig 1995, White 2004, 2007, Blonder et al. 2017), so different methods may perform better for different lead times. In particular, we might expect environmental and ecological information to become more important at longer time scales, and thus for the performance of simple baseline forecasts to degrade faster than forecasts from SDMs and other similar models.

davharris commented 6 years ago

Good catch @sdtaylor. Closing this.