search

whocov / trend_analysis_public

Public version of the trend analysis infrastructure
https://asmodee-infrastructure-handbook.netlify.app/
Other
2 stars 3 forks source link

Use NegBin GLM in growth rate estimation #4

Open thibautjombart opened 3 years ago

thibautjombart commented 3 years ago

We currently use Poisson GLM for the estimation of the growth rate. This likely underestimate uncertainty, definitely for the variance in predictions (but we don't care), but also possibly for the mean prediction (confidence interval). The reason NB GLM is not used currently is that it is too unreliable and does not fit some of the countries. We may consider using quasiPoisson but this model needs implementing in i2extras::fit_curve().

thibautjombart commented 3 years ago

Probably too unreliable at this stage, as the negbin model may not fit and only issue a warning. Tagging as wontfix accordingly.