Estimate probability of infection based on symptoms and other data

wirewirewirewire / pandoa

The app informs you, if you had contact with an infected patient.

GNU General Public License v3.0

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Estimate probability of infection based on symptoms and other data #16

Closed deleted-user-1 closed 4 years ago

deleted-user-1 commented 4 years ago

We can't rely on test results as tests will not be available in big numbers and probably be reserved for emergency cases.

Man wird irgendwann Verdachtsfälle nur anhand von Symptomen melden und sich dann auch in den Statistiken mehr daran orientieren. Gleichzeitig wird man die Tests, die man hat, auf Risikogruppen fokussieren müssen.

https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-03/christian-drosten-coronavirus-pandemie-deutschland-virologe-charite?page=5#comments

So we need to think of a model how to calculate the probability. We could

use checkboxes with known common symptoms
let the user add a rating how strong these symptoms are (helpful?)
add "Shortcuts" like "Is one of the person in your household infected?" which when accpeted automatically mean that we consider this user as infected.
...

br1sc commented 4 years ago

lets base an estimation on the pandemic footprint index and a transitive and fast contact-sharing in case of an infection. if i met 10 people who met 20 infected, my own pandemic footprint index will raise. every time i meet another person in real live, both share their pandemic footprint index in the pandoa app and know they can contact this person later via the app if they should be infectwd - or the other person is infected, or has a high likelihood of infection besause of pandemic footprint index. who wants, can share more details in calculation of PFI to near contacts, but less to low-risk or unknown contacts. in any case of infection, the app transfers information about my last contacts who got infected to me via the app.

valentinriedl commented 4 years ago

the simplest solution right now and working in China/S.Korea is taking your body temp twice a day. This is a reliable measure that you can expect to be regularly performed by each individual and rather specific for COVID, particularly in Germany outside the regular influenca period.

One could include more sophisticated SIR-models at a later stage, i guess

Hans-rooom commented 4 years ago

we should use the body temp and add information (shortness of breath, dry cough,...) Simply 3-4 symptoms that can be ticked off. It certainly can't hurt to gather this data. It is only important that there are not too many points.

We also need to know if the user is in quarantine (and why), and if someone in the vicinity is in quarantine and why.