Blogging Reminder bottom sheet not always shown after publishing 1st post on site

[guarani]

Expected behavior

When publishing the first post on a site, the Blogging Reminders bottom sheet should appear.

Actual behavior

When publishing the first post on a site, in about 1 out of 3 times, the Blogging Reminders bottom sheet does not appear.

Steps to reproduce the behavior

1. Create a site
2. Publish a post
3. Check if Blogging Reminders bottom sheet appears
4. Repeat steps 1 to 3 until you notice the bottom sheet doesn't appear after publishing a post

Tested on iPhone 11, iOS 15.3.1, WPiOS 19.9 beta

h/t to @tiagomar for reporting this issue!

[guarani]

Looking at the app's Activity Log, when Blogging Reminders is surfaced I see:

1. editor_closed event, then
2. blogging_reminders_flow_start event

However, when it is not shown, I see no more events after the editor_closed event. It looks to me like in these scenarios, the BloggingRemindersFlow.present method is not getting called.

[guarani]

The severity of this issue seems medium, but the impact low (only one report, from @tiagomar, so far). So I've given this a low priority.

[guarani]

I ran into this again today. After creating a new site, the blogging reminders prompt (bottom sheet) is not always shown after the first or the second post is published. In my test, on the third post published I saw the blogging prompt.

Looking at the logic here it seems (I'm not 100% certain) that the prompt should be shown on the 1st post published.

[twstokes]

This is failing for me because post.isPublished() is returning false and the guard returns here.

I can get Blogging Reminders to show on the first try if I publish outside the editor, e.g. My Site -> Posts -> Drafts -> More -> Publish Now, because I think this path is taken instead.