zfy68
commented
1 year ago Open zfy68 opened 1 year ago
zfy68
commented
1 year ago zfy68
commented
1 year ago Picture this.
You're in your car and you're getting worried.
You were really, really relying on that fuel station being open.
Now you're not sure you're going to make it
to the next one you see on your map.
And this area is notorious for unreliable stations.
You definitely don't have enough range
to make it to the one that you know is usually working
or even the one that at least has decent customer service
on their help line when it's down.
So you slow way down to conserve energy
and sigh when you see a giant hill coming up on the freeway ahead of you.
The way people are driving,
there is no way you're going to make it up this hill at a safe highway speed
without killing your energy efficiency.
It's hot out, but you turn off your AC
and remind yourself again that charging your phone in the car outlet
doesn't actually use that much energy.
"Man," you think to yourself,
"I remember when this was a problem for EVs.
But when I bought this car,
I just didn't think finding gasoline
was ever going to be this much of a problem."
(Laughter and applause)
If we succeed at reaching international climate goals,
the fossil fuel infrastructure systems
that support about 80 percent of global energy consumption
will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades.
The global dominance of fossil fuels
and the global emergency of climate change
means that this retirement imperative exists everywhere,
whether infrastructure is relatively old --
like in the US, where I work on these issues
and where most of my examples come from --
or relatively newer,
as in many countries with more recent industrialization.
What I'm talking about is big infrastructure,
like power plants and refineries,
but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars,
stoves and furnaces.
Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network of high-hazard industries
that need to be able to continue to operate safely
until the new system is completely ready to take over,
including during emergencies complicated by climate change.
Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous.
We'd expect disproportionate harm
to overburdened and underserved communities
who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices,
abandoned remediation plans
and declining access to energy services.
This means ongoing fossil expenditures
and a reliance on highly trained workers
in industries that might not outlast their careers,
with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries
as quickly as possible to address climate change
and a host of other environmental injustices.
This is why we need to plan.
And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world
where these urgently needed plans for phasing out the fossil system
while phasing in the clean energy system exist.
When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is,
“If we actually believed we were going to succeed,
what would we need to be doing right now?”
The time between now and success
is where this gets real and very difficult.
Sara Hastings-Simon and I call this the mid-transition.
And even under a best-case scenario, it will probably last for decades.
During the mid-transition,
the clean energy system and the fossil energy system
are both too small to fulfill all of the energy needs we have,
but big enough that they can't really operate without constraining each other.
Also, the mid-transition overlaps with the climate transition.
This means we'd expect the systems we have now to become less functional
as they operate further and further outside of design parameters.
And it also means we don't entirely know
what the new systems will need to be able to handle.
Another issue here is that we'd also expect
that the transitioning system will just generally work less well
than either the stable starting point or the stable end point.
As long as both systems are operating at scale,
we can't optimize for either one's needs.
People are often willing to accept some level of problem
in order to enable a shared future vision.
But trust in that vision will be extraordinarily fragile
when it’s required for decades,
while climate impacts are making everything scarier
and while we're visibly dismantling infrastructure
that people remember as functional.
As we plan,
keeping a clear and focused commitment on people first and foremost
and ensuring that these are community-led projects
will be critical.
One of the nice things about existing energy infrastructure is it exists.
So you can go to a power plant break room
and chat up people about how long they expect to keep working
or which bits of the plant site might need remediation.
This means planning can be very, very specific
and guided by the expertise of people that are in these places.
Who needs a job if the power plant closes?
Does everyone in town have safe temperatures in their homes?
Which gas stations need to stay open longer than they're profitable
to make sure that everybody can get to work
while alternative transportation systems mature?
How much extra funding do you need for the library
if tax revenues start to decline?
Although good transition plans need to be deeply community-embedded,
the scale and the impact of the energy system
demands some level of centralized coordination.
One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements.
Ample notice, say a decade,
gives communities enough time to create and implement plans,
and a legislated end date gives people enough confidence
to commit to what can be an intense process.
I showed that in the United States,
requiring all fossil fuel-fired power generators to close by 2035,
which is President Biden's power sector decarbonization target,
would actually allow the large majority of them
to meet or exceed a typical lifespan,
potentially giving communities some confidence
that these deadlines are manageable.
That may not be true in places with much newer infrastructure
and so the conversation about how to choose these deadlines
would look quite different.
But in general,
being honest with people about what's coming,
with enough time and support to do something about it
can be really transformative,
but it does require a commitment to the end point
and to proactively ensuring people have what they need
to thrive alongside transition.
That is what earns and maintains trust.
Not far off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.
The alternative of unplanned transitions is unacceptable, but common.
Notably, this is what we would expect to see
if we just rely on clean energy becoming cheap enough
to displace fossil energy systems.
What I've observed over the years is that facilities might close suddenly
with a round of layoffs and a bankruptcy notification
with very little notice and no plan for what comes next.
Several years ago, I was working on a survey in a coal mining community,
and the morning my survey hit people's mailboxes,
about 500 coal miners were suddenly laid off.
Just four US coal mining companies used bankruptcy
to avoid about five billion dollars in pensions
and environmental cleanup obligations just between 2012 and 2017.
The coal industry in the United States is actually pretty small,
now providing about 11 percent of primary energy,
down from 18 percent a decade ago.
We're talking about successfully retiring and replacing infrastructure
that supports 80 percent of energy use globally and in the United States
all before I reach retirement age.
Planning the transition is an ethical responsibility that takes time,
but also creates opportunities to implement a just and sustainable future
that corrects the harms of the past.
Collaboration and a laser-like focus
on ensuring people have what we need to succeed through this transition
will be critical,
particularly as the transition collides with climate tragedies.
What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?
Anticipating the bumps and planning for success
is the path to a just, decarbonized and sustainable world.
Thank you.
(Applause)
zfy68
commented
1 year ago 外国
图片，
你在车里，你开始
担心
你真的很依赖那个
加油站，
现在你不确定你是否会
到达你在地图上看到的下一个加油站，
这个 该地区因
不可靠的电台而臭名昭著，
您肯定没有足够的范围
来连接到您知道
通常可以正常工作的电台，甚至无法连接到
至少在其帮助热线上有不错的客户服务的电台，
因此您可以放慢速度以节省开支
当你看到一座巨大的山丘在
你前面的高速公路上出现时，你会感到精力充沛并叹息
人们开车的方式
你不可能在不
降低你的能源效率的情况下以安全的高速公路速度爬上这座山
它很热但是 你关掉你的交流电
并再次提醒自己
在汽车插座上给你的手机充电
实际上并没有消耗那么多
你自己想的能量
我记得这对 EVS 来说是个问题
但是当我买这辆车时我只是没有
认为发现
如果我们成功实现国际
气候目标，汽油将成为一个如此大的问题 支持
全球约 80% 能源
消耗的化石燃料基础设施系统将在未来几十年内大部分（如果不是完全）
退役
化石燃料在全球的主导地位
全球气候变化的紧急情况
意味着
无论基础设施
是相对陈旧的还是像
我在这些问题上工作的美国以及
我的大部分例子都来自那里，还是相对较
新的如我所说的许多工业化较新的国家，退休的必要性无处不在
我谈论的是大型
基础设施，如发电厂和
炼油厂，但也包括
加油站和人们的汽车炉灶和
熔炉化石
燃料基础设施是一个复杂的
高危险行业网络，
需要能够继续
安全运行，直到新系统
完全准备好接管，包括
在紧急情况下 Compl 受到
气候变化的影响
仅仅让这些系统消失将
具有严重的破坏性和危险性
我们预计会对
负担过重和服务不足的社区造成不成比例的伤害，
他们不能选择从飞涨的
价格中退出 放弃补救计划和
减少获得能源服务 这
意味着持续的化石支出
依赖可能不会比职业生涯更长久的行业中训练有素的工人，
同时关注
尽快淘汰这些相同的行业，
以解决气候
变化和许多其他环境
不公正问题，
这就是我们需要计划的原因，
现在 世界上基本上没有任何地方存在
这些迫切需要的逐步
淘汰化石系统
同时逐步采用清洁能源系统的计划
当我们谈论气候目标时
我想问的问题是如果我们真的
相信我们会成功
我们会怎样 现在需要做的是从
现在到成功之间的时间
Sarah histing Simon 和我称之为
中期过渡，这变得真实且非常困难，即使在最好的
情况下，它也可能会持续数
十年，
在中期过渡期间，清洁
能源系统和化石能源
系统都太小而无法实现
我们拥有的所有能源需求，但
足够大，以至于它们无法在
没有相互约束的情况下真正运行，
而且中间过渡与
气候过渡重叠，这意味着我们
预计我们现在拥有的系统随着
它们进一步运行而变得不那么实用
并且在设计参数之外，
这也意味着我们不完全知道
新系统需要什么才能
处理
这里的另一个问题是我们还
希望过渡系统通常
比
稳定的起点或
稳定的终点，只要两个系统都
在规模上运行，我们就无法
针对任何一个人的需求进行优化，
人们通常愿意接受某种
程度的 o f 问题是为了实现
共同的未来愿景，但相信
当
气候影响正在使一切变得更加
可怕时，如果需要几十年，愿景将非常脆弱，而我们正在明显
拆除人们
记得的功能性基础设施，
因为我们计划
保持清晰 并首先关注以
人为本，并
确保这些是社区主导的
项目将是至关重要的
现有
能源基础设施的好处之一是它存在，因此
您可以去发电厂休息室
和人们聊聊他们多久了
期望继续工作或
工厂现场的哪些部分可能需要修复
这意味着计划可以非常非常
具体，并由这些地方的人的专业知识指导，
如果发电厂
关闭，镇上的每个人都需要工作吗？
在他们的家中，哪些
加油站需要营业的时间超过
他们盈利的时间，以确保
每个人都能得到 t o 在
替代交通系统
成熟的同时工作
如果税收收入开始下降，图书馆需要多少额外资金，
尽管良好的过渡计划需要
深入社区
能源系统的规模和影响
需要某种程度的集中
协调
一种策略 这里是为
化石资产退休设定最后期限
充分的通知说十年给
社区足够的时间来制定和
实施计划，立法的结束
日期让人们有足够的信心来
承诺这可能是一个紧张的过程
我表明在美国
要求所有 化石燃料
发电机将在 2035 年之前关闭，这是
拜登总统的电力部门
脱碳目标 实际上
将使其中大部分达到
或超过典型寿命
有了更新的
基础设施，所以对话
关于如何选择这些截止日期的问题
看起来会大不相同，
但总的来说，如果
有足够的时间和
支持来对人们诚实地做一些事情，这确实会带来
变革，但它确实
需要对终点的承诺
，并主动确保人们有
他们需要在转型过程中蓬勃发展，
这是赢得和维持信任的东西，
而不是实施计划含糊不清的遥远排放目标，计划
外转型的替代方案
是不可接受的，但很常见，
尤其是
如果我们仅仅依靠清洁能源
成为现实，这就是我们期望看到的 便宜到足以取代化石
能源系统
多年来我观察到的是，
设施可能会突然关闭，
伴随着一轮裁员和破产
通知，几乎没有通知，而且
几年前我正在做一项
调查 在一个煤矿社区，
早上我的调查发送到人们的
邮箱，大约 500 名煤矿工人 仅在
2012 年
至 2017 年间突然裁员，仅有四家美国煤矿公司利用破产来逃避约 50 亿美元的养老金和环境清理义务。美国的煤炭行业
实际上规模很小，
现在提供了约 11% 的
一次能源 从十年前的 18 岁开始，
我们正在谈论成功
退休和更换
支持全球和美国 80% 能源使用的基础设施，
所有这些都在
我达到退休年龄之前
规划过渡是一项道德
责任，需要时间但也
创造了实施机会
调整和可持续的未来，
纠正过去合作的危害，
并像激光一样专注于
确保人们拥有我们
在这一过渡中取得成功所需的东西，这将是
至关重要的，特别是当过渡
与气候悲剧发生冲突时，
如果我们相信我们现在会做什么
成功
预料到成功的颠簸和计划
是 th 调整
脱碳和可持续世界的路径谢谢
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