zhehaowang
commented
4 years ago Thanks for the comment!
时间，成本（物流，风险），以及汇率波动，最重要的是价格的波动，如果在运输过程中，价格产生了波动，那么有可能会损失
Agreed. With our limited experience practicing this, price volatility, low liquidity and items getting lost in shipping had been the top risk factors, which ended up discouraging enough to halt the experiment. (https://github.com/zhehaowang/sneaky/issues/55 is an attempt to study these. We made money on some, held others for really long, and lost one pair in shipping which really stung.)
I'm not necessarily convinced these risk factors would spell a dead end though: demanding large enough edge and modeling for risks in decision making would both help (say, a cutoff at 30% profit marking Du ytd lowest transaction price to StockX mid ytd low, on "liquid enough" (model, size)s), which I presume sounded similar to "根据经验摸索出来一套方法论". I tend to think under normal market conditions, there is a real pricing discrepancy to be exploited, and the best way to do that, without relying on additional platform / setup, would be via automation.
(In practice, fx, holding time or platform verification had not been issues at all. The biggest blocker might have been that my collaborator @djian618 moved and we found it hard to keep this up, without a few key logistic issues resolved 😂 . I'm an engineer and don't care too much about sneakers or shipping. Plus it's probably a good idea to put the whole thing on-hold during the pandemic.)
相比之下，一种更见稳定的套利模式，我认为是通过“期货”“期权”来提前锁定收益，在NICE平台上，根据返回的结果销售期货，一单SOLD的，进行套利操作，这样相当于卖出了一个Call，如果对方不行权，也可以获得权利金
Not convinced. There needs to be a large enough demand for risk management / speculation on the underlying, for a futures / options market to have sufficient liquidity, without which modeling attempts would incur significant unforeseen risks.
Picture this: the platform now offers a product "call option at $300 on 20200801 on a pair of Nike 554723-051 US Size Men 7.0" (that is, with potentially questionable authenticity control, nor a clearing agency to enforce the trade). How should this thing be priced such that traders on both sides are encouraged to participate? How does a program price this and make decisions? (keep in mind pricing an extremely liquid zero credit risk US govt bond with optionality is non-trivial already)? Does this match with the demand for the underlying (I saw the primary counterparty being sneakers enthusiasts and not other speculators looking to transfer risk)?
With reasonable regulation, there could be a niche option market on sneakers at some point, but the work needed to be consistently profitable there requires solid modeling of the underlying in the first place, at which point one's likely to already be profitable without further complexity.
在二级市场上，时间相比空间更加重要，在跨国套利的时候，必须注意以下几点，时间，成本（物流，风险），以及汇率波动，最重要的是价格的波动，如果在运输过程中，价格产生了波动，那么有可能会损失，当然最重要的是流动性，我自己曾经通过程序来进行套利，分析出来有利润的单品，在国内根本没有流动性，导致需要很长时间的库存，最后，STX和毒的质检要求完全不一致，可能会造成无法通过质检的可能性，这就导致了这种套利的风险变得很高，相比之下，一种更见稳定的套利模式，我认为是通过“期货”“期权”来提前锁定收益，在NICE平台上，根据返回的结果销售期货，一单SOLD的，进行套利操作，这样相当于卖出了一个Call，如果对方不行权，也可以获得权利金，权利金可以冲销成本，这样成本进一步下降，想对应的来说，风险更低，获利更高，常见的还有在国内的平台进行，套利，但是依旧会存在时间和空间还有流动性上的风险，不过如果根据经验摸索出来一套方法论，并且设计好违约金的比例，操作性就大大提高了。