Closed WeirdPhrog closed 3 years ago
ronjonz
commented
3 years ago Why would the 100tb have a better chance? Surely if the 10tb guy was farming and deleting his 10tb drives regularly then they each would be plotting the same volume of plots (lottery cards) and so the odds the same?
You don't delete your plots every day! In fact there is no reason to delete your plots, except to join a pool.
DorinTomescu
commented
3 years ago Why would the 100tb have a better chance? Surely if the 10tb guy was farming and deleting his 10tb drives regularly then they each would be plotting the same volume of plots (lottery cards) and so the odds the same?
You don't delete your plots every day! In fact there is no reason to delete your plots, except to join a pool.
Everyone still have hope that when the pools are coming, we could migrate our existing plots to the pool. Just wait and we`ll see if this can become a passive income or not.
DorinTomescu
commented
3 years ago Why would the 100tb have a better chance? Surely if the 10tb guy was farming and deleting his 10tb drives regularly then they each would be plotting the same volume of plots (lottery cards) and so the odds the same?
You don't delete your plots every day! In fact there is no reason to delete your plots, except to join a pool.
Everyone still have hope that when the pools are coming, we could migrate our existing plots to the pool. Just wait and we`ll see if this can become a passive income or not.
And with the pools we will still have people that are complaining that they receive almost nothing cause they contribute only 2-3 TB of space or less to the pool...
macgyver16502
commented
3 years ago And it actually makes the issue worse in a way. Yes with a pool, there is a much higher chance that you will get something. But your odds (payout versus contribution) are actually lower. Lets do a simple example if the total size of the Chia network were 1 Exabyte or 10,589,170 plots and you contributed 1 Terabyte or 11 plots your chances of winning any single lottery draw are 11/10,589,170 or approximately 0.00014% chance to win 2 XCH. On the other hand lets say you join a pool that has a total of 1,000 Terabytes (1 Petabyte) or 10,341 plots, your pool's chances of winning any single lottery are 10,341/10,589,170 or approximately 0.097656% chance to win 2 XCH - now the pool takes its cut, let's say 5%; that leaves 1.9 XCH to divide among the pool's contributors. Given the above numbers you are contributing 11 plots out of the pool's 10,341 plot total or 0.106373% so you will receive 1.9 XCH * 0.106373% or 0.002021 XCH or at $1000/XCH about $2.02... So, you go on your own and have a poor chance to win 2 XCH or join a pool and have a much better chance to win - less the pool's fee and divided among the pool's contributors...
s-tb
commented
3 years ago for some time now ( since Chia Coin started way back ) 5 friends have had a simple discussion: if a rack blade server were running Chia Coin with all 8 drive bays full with 16 tb drives ( rounded down to 10tb each for ease of computation in this discussion ) for a total cost of X AND electricity cost were added in, at the end of one year, would the rig pay for itself ?
today ChiaCoin is at $1000 per coin so we'd love it if someone checked if we were off our rockers with our numbers and assumptions. Here is the use case:
Bob paid $220 for 1000kwh lst year in electricity cost. If a DELL PowerEdge R720 Server DUAL Xeon E5-2650 16 Core with 64GB RAM and 16TB of SAS drive space were used for plotting AND farming https://www.ebay.com/itm/401968511524?hash=item5d9730ba24:g:uJ0AAOSw8fddzVx6 ( and from the Dell spec sheet for this model ) the Total Estimated YEARLY Energy Usage (kWh/year) = 5,377 to 8,023 at maximum load on the CPU and fully stacked with ALL the EIGHT drive bays full. Thus we see: $220 is to 1000khw as $2708 is to 8000kwh/yr thus the total bill to run the 1 dell server with all the drive bays full is $2708/yr in electricity.
7 days ago we see current chia coin prices to farm https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/chia-coins-initially-high-prices-could-cause-a-storage-shortage was guesstimated at $100 per 1 chia coin. Today it's over $1000. Now reading " 10TB of storage dedicated to Chia plots would be enough for a farm of 100 plots and should in theory account for 0.0005% of the netspace. That would mean about 0.046 XCH per day of potential farming, except you're flying solo (proper Chia pools don't exist yet), so it would take on average 43 days to farm a block — and that's assuming netspace doesn't continue to increase, which it will.... 0.04 XCH per day, even if we lowball things with a value of $100, that's $4-$5 per day, from a 10TB HDD ... ten drives and you'd be looking at $45 per day, albeit with returns trending downward over time."
Thus:
1) if $6.4K invested, at the end of yr 1 are numbers above for ROI correct ? 2) or is it now " winning " coins fully random from a lottery system ? 3) farms should earn each day but assumption may not be correct from above threads ? 4) farming coins is now " winning " coins randomly ?
mati22124
commented
3 years ago You have to remember. You aren't guaranteed to find a block. Right now people with one plot could farm a coin and somebody with 300 might not. I think people might be discouraged to buy drives and invest because they know it's a gamble. When pools come out, people will be encouraged to buy more drives because they know even if their drives don't find a block somebodies might, and they get paid more because they have more plots.
s-tb
commented
3 years ago hmmmm, this is FULLY confusing then @mati22124 you are saying " one plot could farm a coin and somebody with 300 might not " then HOW is farming assigned ? should this not be 100% random?
OR are we in a FULL ON it's who you know game ? and who IS that who you know farming assigner?
this is certainly NOT in any of the articles or literature out there VERY concerning ( insert halo emoji )
s-tb
commented
3 years ago and with all off this I think it's easy to ask just ONE simple question
1) CHIA calculator https://chiacalculator.com/ reports " Number of Plots (of size 101.4GiB, k=32) " thus A completely full 10TB HDD can store 91 standard Chia blocks (101.4 GiB) thus 100TB space online 24/7 is 1014 Gib ? thus 0.20 chai coins and after 1 year that equals $207.33
so my calculation @ 14K/yr produced is radically incorrect yes ?
mati22124
commented
3 years ago ITs a lottery. Your computer makes hashes and stores them on the drive. The hash that is closest to the block will get the reward. In a sense, it is a lottery. You could win a lottery with one ticket(plot in this sense) than somebody with 100 tickets(plots). Plots are never expiring lottery pickets where a drawing is every 18.75 seconds according to toms hardware. if you have 10 farming plots, put that into the calculator to see the estimated time to win. It is an estimate so it's not guaranteed. That's why somebody with 1 plot could win when it's almost impossible. Somebody could invest 1,000,000 dollars into Chia and not win anything although the chances of that are extremely low.
s-tb
commented
3 years ago @mati22124 yep, this is true but confusion for EVERYONE comes from many articles with too many mixed up variables terabytes ( tb ) and then the TiB scientific notation, storage size, time process, etc... thus:
p1) https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/how-to/how-to-farm-chia-coin-the-new-storage-based-cryptocurrency states " at a rate of 18 plots per day, it would take about 30 days of solid plotting time to fill six 10TB HDDs. Meanwhile, the potential profit from 60TB of Chia plots (546 101.4 GiB plots) means someone with 546 plots would potentially solve a Chia block every 12 days and earn around $5,380 per month. "
p2) https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/chia-coins-initially-high-prices-could-cause-a-storage-shortage " states a serer with a " 64-core EPYC processor, 256GB of RAM, and at least 16TB of fast SSD storage, you could potentially create up to 64 plots at a time, at a rate of around six (give or take) hours per group of plots. That's enough to create 256 plots per day, filling over 2.5 10TB HDDs with data "
p3) From the same article if " EACH 101.4 GiB ( giga byte ) plot officially requires up to 350 GiB and starting from 0 plots, plotting at 1.8 TiB per day, and filling up 60TB of drives gives a potential income of $6,410 over the next six months."
thus the above means it's ALL about the plotting phase thus it's ALL processor based thus:
Because, lottery system or not:
Would love to see if we've missed anything.....
mati22124
commented
3 years ago yes. But 1 day to plot a 10TB drive is 100 plots a day. that's super fast its more like 1.5tb or 15 plots a day. it depends on your cpu and ssd and all that stuff. also don't speak for everyone. if you are getting confused that's ok but don't say, "...confusion for EVERYONE...", if you're the only one confused.
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago All of this math is excellent but there are two things to consider.
1st: Based on the conversation, while chiacalculator.com shows a great estimate, it's an estimate based on a lotto system. So you could be completely unlucky.
2nd: The tooltip in the UI for "Estimated Time to Win" says "... Actual results may take 3 to 4 times longer than this estimate". So at 2 months (where most of us are at) ... we are looking at 2 to 8 months to win.
I wouldn't recommend anyone invest in hardware based on the estimates of any website. If you find an excellent deal or have stuff laying around, go for it. This should be played the same way you play the lottery - For Fun. Pools will be a game changer but if you have to re-write all of your plots, you're blowing SSDs away again. So wait. Unless you're having fun.
tslims99
commented
3 years ago Excellent post.
On May 11, 2021, at 12:15 PM, haptikfeedback @.***> wrote:
All of this math is excellent but there are two things to consider.
1st: Based on the conversation, while chiacalculator.com shows a great estimate, it's an estimate based on a lotto system. So you could be completely unlucky.
2nd: The tooltip in the UI for "Estimated Time to Win" says "... Actual results may take 3 to 4 times longer than this estimate". So at 2 months (where most of us are at) ... we are looking at 2 to 8 months to win.
I wouldn't recommend anyone invest in hardware based on the estimates of any website. If you find an excellent deal or have stuff laying around, go for it. This should be played the same way you play the lottery - For Fun. Pools will be a game changer but if you have to re-write all of your plots, you're blowing SSDs away again. So wait. Unless you're having fun.
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fl00die
commented
3 years ago Thanks guys... So... Its kinda confused me a little here.
I thought the process was this: 1) plot say 15 plots per day 2) these all get sent to my pool of 100tb storage Question: this is approx 1.6tb of my 100tb used. When do i farm these? Keep on until all my 100tb is full? 3) once my 100tb storage is full i assume i farm and if i have no winning plots then it all gets erased and start back at step 1..... Right?
s-tb
commented
3 years ago @mati22124 ok, so thank you for this and a little clarification when I say "...confusion for EVERYONE..." I've said that ONLY because of the TiB suffixs, converting from TB to Tib, plot size due to processor capability & computing plots/day is a little messy for anyone, thus, 100% you are correct " depends on your cpu and ssd and all that stuff " BUT..... as there is NO calculator that let's you put in, say, CPU, number of cores, RAM, drives used, thus plots/day cannot be guessed with ANY ease and that's a big pain in the ass. You literally need to use the ChiaCalculator and keep upping plot numbers until you scroll down and see that this equals X number of Western Digital 18TB drives base on how many TB of space you are ready to commit. THEN you have to completely guess, ok, my hardware can do X number of plots per day ( but I have no exact idea ) but how many can my hardware REALLY do a day ? complete guess. Thus......
that's why I guessed a Dell server: https://www.ebay.com/itm/401968511524?hash=item5d9730ba24:g:uJ0AAOSw8fddzVx6
I think THIS is the issue ( and which I hope I've echoed properly ) is that Chia is about if you are " validated " as usable, trustworthy and always on: your servers are of sufficient size and value THEN you get chosen to win to be used. If ChiaCalcultor shows that with 96TB online that's " Expected time to win 9 days " i think it might be due to: 3.323 EiB storage out there ( Including your space ) and our 90tb ( Owned network space ) = 0.0023% thus you are worthy of a " Monthly USD* $6.50k / month " ( if you cashed in your coins ) but this is just a guess.
If I were building an always on, universal block chain neural node system that's what I'd do. ;) what do you guys think ?
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago Thanks guys... So... Its kinda confused me a little here.
I thought the process was this:
- plot say 15 plots per day
- these all get sent to my pool of 100tb storage Question: this is approx 1.6tb of my 100tb used. When do i farm these? Keep on until all my 100tb is full?
- once my 100tb storage is full i assume i farm and if i have no winning plots then it all gets erased and start back at step 1..... Right?
If you're using the UI, it's a full node. So it plots and farms. As soon as the plot is finished, it should start farming that plot.
M1dn1ghtN1nj4
commented
3 years ago No. You will continue to farm the completed plots, as soon as the plots is finished, regardless of how many you have (up until full storage of course). You don't need to finish EVERY plot first. As you go, completed plots will start farming.
You don't delete any plots. It may take you a long time to get a win. But keep in mind, reach plot can win MORE THAN ONCE.
On Tue, May 11, 2021, 12:40 PM fl00die @.***> wrote:
Thanks guys... So... Its kinda confused me a little here.
I thought the process was this:
- plot say 15 plots per day
- these all get sent to my pool of 100tb storage Question: this is approx 1.6tb of my 100tb used. When do i farm these? Keep on until all my 100tb is full?
- once my 100tb storage is full i assume i farm and if i have no winning plots then it all gets erased and start back at step 1..... Right?
— You are receiving this because you commented. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/issues/3509#issuecomment-838803155, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AJXLIJ7H3KSF7P2Z7G6ZV7DTNFMWHANCNFSM44AMETVQ .
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago No. You will continue to farm the completed plots, as soon as the plots is finished, regardless of how many you have (up until full storage of course). You don't need to finish EVERY plot first. As you go, completed plots will start farming. You don't delete any plots. It may take you a long time to get a win. But keep in mind, reach plot can win MORE THAN ONCE. … On Tue, May 11, 2021, 12:40 PM fl00die @.***> wrote: Thanks guys... So... Its kinda confused me a little here. I thought the process was this: 1. plot say 15 plots per day 2. these all get sent to my pool of 100tb storage Question: this is approx 1.6tb of my 100tb used. When do i farm these? Keep on until all my 100tb is full? 3. once my 100tb storage is full i assume i farm and if i have no winning plots then it all gets erased and start back at step 1..... Right? — You are receiving this because you commented. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#3509 (comment)>, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AJXLIJ7H3KSF7P2Z7G6ZV7DTNFMWHANCNFSM44AMETVQ .
That's not completely true - Every once in a while, you should run a plot check to ensure you have no bad plots.
fl00die
commented
3 years ago Thanks guys. So. Say i fill my 100tb with plots within 2 months, what then??? What space do i use to farm new plots, Buy another 100tb!!?! And my existing 100tb is no longer usable to send more plots to? I dont bloody get it ha
DorinTomescu
commented
3 years ago Do not forget guys, on the chia calculator website there u also have an Advanced tab, that calculates the income over time taking in consideration the growth of the network. So if u get like 2.000$/ month now with 250 plots (lets just assume that, I dont know the exact numbers), that`s just TRUE if the network stays as it is. But if u do 2.000$ / month when the total amount of space in network is 3 EiB, when there are will be 6 EiB u will just get 1.000$. And those are only if the price of the coin remains the same. But those are just estimations, u can also be really lucky and get more ...
DorinTomescu
commented
3 years ago Thanks guys. So. Say i fill my 100tb with plots within 2 months, what then??? What space do i use to farm new plots, Buy another 100tb!!?! And my existing 100tb is no longer usable to send more plots to? I dont bloody get it ha
So, first of all, IF YOU HAVE 100TB, and u fill them with 1000 plots, then u farm those plots till your HDD will malfunction. You don't need to do other plots because u don't send the plots to the network. U keep the plots on your HDD's and u farm them over the network as long as u have them. But over time with the growth of the network, your income from farming will decrease.
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago Thanks guys. So. Say i fill my 100tb with plots within 2 months, what then??? What space do i use to farm new plots, Buy another 100tb!!?! And my existing 100tb is no longer usable to send more plots to? I dont bloody get it ha
You should really start here - https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/wiki/Beginners-Guide - this should explain everything. It's much easier than answering questions as they come up.
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago Thanks guys. So. Say i fill my 100tb with plots within 2 months, what then??? What space do i use to farm new plots, Buy another 100tb!!?! And my existing 100tb is no longer usable to send more plots to? I dont bloody get it ha
So, first of all, IF YOU HAVE 100TB, and u fill them with 1000 plots, then u farm those plots till your HDD will malfunction. You don't need to do other plots because u don't send the plots to the network. U keep the plots on your HDD's and u farm them over the network as long as u have them. But over time with the growth of the network, your income from farming will decrease.
You are correct. You create your 1000 plots - which takes the most energy. Then they sit there - trying to make you money until the drive finally fails. 1 plot can be infinitely profitable.
fl00die
commented
3 years ago AHHHHH. Christ all mighty.... I never knew that the plots just remain and get refarmed over and over. I was looking at it like a lottery ticket. If it plays and loses then its game over time to buy(plot) another ticket!.... So yes, i have 96tb to be precise will get them going. Thanks for the link to the beginners guide, will take a good read.
One final thing i hope. I get to these 1000 plots sat there. How often will they get farmed? Is it daily? Weekly?
DorinTomescu
commented
3 years ago AHHHHH. Christ all mighty.... I never knew that the plots just remain and get refarmed over and over. I was looking at it like a lottery ticket. If it plays and loses then its game over time to buy(plot) another ticket!.... So yes, i have 96tb to be precise will get them going. Thanks for the link to the beginners guide, will take a good read.
One final thing i hope. I get to these 1000 plots sat there. How often will they get farmed? Is it daily? Weekly?
I think that somebody wrote that the it is a block every 13 seconds or so. More precise to be, they are farmed as long as u let them be farmed. It can go 365/365 if u let your pc and the GUI 24/24 everyday .
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago AHHHHH. Christ all mighty.... I never knew that the plots just remain and get refarmed over and over. I was looking at it like a lottery ticket. If it plays and loses then its game over time to buy(plot) another ticket!.... So yes, i have 96tb to be precise will get them going. Thanks for the link to the beginners guide, will take a good read.
One final thing i hope. I get to these 1000 plots sat there. How often will they get farmed? Is it daily? Weekly?
Um - that is a much harder question. They basically have x amounts of chances at attempting a proof in x amount of time. I think it's every few minutes. So you're playing your lotto ticket pretty regularly. I don't recall the exact math as it confused me :) If someone has a way to explain it to an idiot - I'd listen :)
This explains it - but every 18 seconds a new plot is created... and you have a chance to win. https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/wiki/Beginners-Guide#farm-tab
fl00die
commented
3 years ago Great stuff. Thanks aloy guys. This has been extremely helpful
s-tb
commented
3 years ago @haptikfeedback i think this is THE issue and from your link " Winning is very rare, and on average one person wins in the whole world every 18 seconds. " which means of the number of people on the system ( not the storage ) is the issue ?
it's unique CPU based?
If you had 1 machine with 100 tb or 10 machines with 10tb, the more machines you have the better your chances?
Or the number of HD space is the determinent ?
the reason: 18 seconds per " lotto " drawing. 60 seconds/min, 60 mins/1hr, 24hrs/day, 365 days/year = 31,536,000 seconds/yr devided by 18 there are 1.72M chances to win but by how many machines out there? or is it HD space based? or up time, etc., ?
you might wait a VERY long time to win, and it's only getting harder and harder to win, thus when you do win, your whole rig ( all your ready to go HD space is used ) and then you are rewarded with a coin. this means it could be a VERY long time before you see the payback ( via the chia calculator ) thus these $6.58k / month rated on 818 plots might never really allow for $6.5k/mo ya ?
that might be where the complexity comes in w/chia bitcoin, etherium, etc. mining takes forever, but it mines chia, will get harder and harder to win and then you are sitting idle the whole time or plotting alllllllllllll the drives you are buying to win more now THAT's gambling addiction right there ;)
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago @haptikfeedback i think this is THE issue and from your link " Winning is very rare, and on average one person wins in the whole world every 18 seconds. " which means of the number of people on the system ( not the storage ) is the issue ?
it's unique CPU based?
If you had 1 machine with 100 tb or 10 machines with 10tb, the more machines you have the better your chances?
Or the number of HD space is the determinent ?
the reason: 18 seconds per " lotto " drawing. 60 seconds/min, 60 mins/1hr, 24hrs/day, 365 days/year = 31,536,000 seconds/yr devided by 18 there are 1.72M chances to win but by how many machines out there? or is it HD space based? or up time, etc., ?
you might wait a VERY long time to win, and it's only getting harder and harder to win, thus when you do win, your whole rig ( all your ready to go HD space is used ) and then you are rewarded with a coin. this means it could be a VERY long time before you see the payback ( via the chia calculator ) thus these $6.58k / month rated on 818 plots might never really allow for $6.5k/mo ya ?
that might be where the complexity comes in w/chia bitcoin, etherium, etc. mining takes forever, but it mines chia, will get harder and harder to win and then you are sitting idle the whole time or plotting alllllllllllll the drives you are buying to win more now THAT's gambling addiction right there ;)
You have a lot of valid points. Let me answer the questions first.
Your winning is based on the number of plots you have. There is a little math that adds benefits to having additional harvesters. I currently have 1 full node (plotting/farming/harvesting) and 3 harvesters going after my plots. The math doesn't multiple my chances by 3... but it does increase it... or it's supposed to.
Time also has a factor in winning. This is proof of space AND time. So the longer you have the plots, the better your chances.
In reference to your question - Is it based on how many machines are out there, -- No, it's based on how many plots are out there and according to the time element, how old they are. You are also correct, that since this is a lotto system you could end up never winning. Bad Luck.
Aside from power cost and the normal differences between CHIA and BTC is that BTC has pools. Those pools pay out on a regular schedule. They pay out a portion of the 1 coin that was mined. With CHIA, you are currently all on your own. Trying to get an entire coin. Once pools come online, you can expect regular payments similar to BTC. That is assuming that XCH will maintain a value that makes it worth farming.
Chia will also get harder and harder - min by min. As more plots come online, your chances get reduced. BTC, the margins based on how many miners is there, but it's less impactful at this point. You're still going to make stable money. The difficulty of BTC changes every 4 years I believe. CHIA's difficulty changes all the damn time. Up and Down.
s-tb
commented
3 years ago @haptikfeedback yep, there are a lot of factors, and trying to organise them is the key BUT while knowing that it's at some point based on size, anyone out there with a big ass server farm is going to take over, plus as you said, CHIA's difficulty changes all the time. This might come to bite us all in the back side, BUT if we get in early and hold coins when pooling happens, it will be the game changer
Apparently the Chineese have already found a work around for pooling https://uupool.com/ so someone is already way ahead of us all. Everything is in Chineese but Google translate will solve that.
Now the ONLY question is the expected size of the new network ( when everyone starts to come online ) and the level of difficulty that will take place when the pooling occurs: many many small people pooling their 10tb external drives will crust anyone ( 100tb rigs ) in the middle. Thus it will be a high low game.
What I'm very curious about is how you are progressing and how you determined to make the splits as you have " 1 full node (plotting/farming/harvesting) and 3 harvesters going after my plots " vs, just being in say a non plotting mode after you clear your total, say 100tb. Or are you in mid-plot right now?
Our estimate is 88 days for all 88tb to be plotted then we are assuming going for a full farming mode with harvesting whenever necessary. Harvesting is automatic yes ? That's our understanding.
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago I'll probably be mid-plot mode for a while. I'm working roughly 12 plots a day conservatively. Once I get through my available drives As $$ and HDD deals become available, I'll add another drive and start plotting again.
I could technically plot on multiple machines at once, but I don't want to burn out my other drives. I have an iodrive that has a lot of durability. So I'm only using that to plot.
Your Full Node ( the machine that plots and farms ) will automatically farm plots as they are built. The full node takes more resources than a harvester. So I run harvester only on the other machines to give me a bump when proofing. At least that is how I understand it.
I'm at 157 plots and I have 0 XCH. I am also no expert. I have no proof that anything I have read or say is real. All I know is that this is a lottery and I am unlucky :)
s-tb
commented
3 years ago @haptikfeedback hmmm, that's interesting in terms of your processing speed. my hope was ( from the above ) that it could be possible with a 2 ( physical ) chip system to do 2x if not 4x the plotting speed due to the multiple cores on each + high 64gb ram capability as on the Dell server that I had mentioned above. Might I ask what you are running for a processor and RAM ?
I think that once you get to the full plot capability of your ( did you say 88TB ) full system, you might get more " lucky " as my gut says the Chia system is really looking for full plots to process " efficiently " for full use. Better to have a full " brain " than a 1/2 connected set of neurons. But that's my CS background coming into play.
But re: " So I run harvester only on the other machines to give me a bump when proofing. At least that is how I understand it. " you are not running it automatically ? We see it as a set it and forget it model but you are doing it manually ?
StavrosD
commented
3 years ago You may can use many computers for plotting.
You may only use one harvester. You have to move the plots from the plotters to the harvester.
s-tb
commented
3 years ago i think it's always interesting how " plots and farms " is one thing but people use it as 2 separate things or cryptographically are they 2 seperate processes in Chia and I'm making the mistake here ?
i do know that you can buy fully plotted " files " or plots and then put them on a harvester for the next level of the computation to continue ( and thus coins to be generated ) but once the harvesting is taking place the rest of the process is fully automatic yes ?
mati22124
commented
3 years ago @haptikfeedback i think this is THE issue and from your link " Winning is very rare, and on average one person wins in the whole world every 18 seconds. " which means of the number of people on the system ( not the storage ) is the issue ?
it's unique CPU based?
If you had 1 machine with 100 tb or 10 machines with 10tb, the more machines you have the better your chances?
Or the number of HD space is the determinent ?
the reason: 18 seconds per " lotto " drawing. 60 seconds/min, 60 mins/1hr, 24hrs/day, 365 days/year = 31,536,000 seconds/yr devided by 18 there are 1.72M chances to win but by how many machines out there? or is it HD space based? or up time, etc., ?
you might wait a VERY long time to win, and it's only getting harder and harder to win, thus when you do win, your whole rig ( all your ready to go HD space is used ) and then you are rewarded with a coin. this means it could be a VERY long time before you see the payback ( via the chia calculator ) thus these $6.58k / month rated on 818 plots might never really allow for $6.5k/mo ya ?
that might be where the complexity comes in w/chia bitcoin, etherium, etc. mining takes forever, but it mines chia, will get harder and harder to win and then you are sitting idle the whole time or plotting alllllllllllll the drives you are buying to win more now THAT's gambling addiction right there ;)
Its a pure lottery. 100%. The number of people in the system matters technically. In a real lottery, The more lottery tickets someone buys, the more the lottery prize goes up but the lower your chances are. The EXACT same thing is with chia but you hold on to your lottery tickets, even if you lose. Yes you arent guarenteed but somebody said that the longer you have your plots, the higher chances you are. Look at this youtube link. It shows extremly basicaly how you can 'win'
i think it's always interesting how " plots and farms " is one thing but people use it as 2 separate things or cryptographically are they 2 seperate processes in Chia and I'm making the mistake here ?
i do know that you can buy fully plotted " files " or plots and then put them on a harvester for the next level of the computation to continue ( and thus coins to be generated ) but once the harvesting is taking place the rest of the process is fully automatic yes ?
I dont think you need to put them into a harvester. You just download them onto your hard drive, and put the directory of the plot in the chia software. I'm using gui so I'm not sure about cli
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago You may can use many computers for plotting.
You may only use one harvester. You have to move the plots from the plotters to the harvester.
"You may only use one harvester" That is an incorrect statement, maybe you can only have 1 plot to 1 harvester relationship. https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/wiki/Farming-on-many-machines#how-to-harvest-on-other-machines-that-are-not-your-main-machine
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago @haptikfeedback hmmm, that's interesting in terms of your processing speed. my hope was ( from the above ) that it could be possible with a 2 ( physical ) chip system to do 2x if not 4x the plotting speed due to the multiple cores on each + high 64gb ram capability as on the Dell server that I had mentioned above. Might I ask what you are running for a processor and RAM ?
I think that once you get to the full plot capability of your ( did you say 88TB ) full system, you might get more " lucky " as my gut says the Chia system is really looking for full plots to process " efficiently " for full use. Better to have a full " brain " than a 1/2 connected set of neurons. But that's my CS background coming into play.
But re: " So I run harvester only on the other machines to give me a bump when proofing. At least that is how I understand it. " you are not running it automatically ? We see it as a set it and forget it model but you are doing it manually ?
Just a quick reply - Only completed plots can be used to earn XCH. Farms currently being plotted are useless. So if you have 1 completed plot - that is what matters. The drive capacity only matters when you talk about how many plots can be on that drive. So a 10tb drive can have something like 99 plots. You don't have to fill it up. Just complete 1 and you're off to the races.
If you talking about the process of plotting - I manually build my plots. You could queue a bunch of them if you wanted. All the matters is you have completed plots.
s12321
commented
3 years ago It is lottery, most of the current Crypto mining are. If you are serious about this Chia coin reward business, you should consider 10k plots = 1000TB harddisk (Don't forget to add another 1000TB to back up, i have lost some after update 1.1.5). Frankly, 100plots (~10TB) wont meet your expectation. I assume you have 100 plots now, and getting 10 plots per day incrementally archive 10k plots in 6 months (of cos you can make it faster). then you you will have higher chance to get 9 XCH (there is no guarantee under the current chia network rule)
details of the calculation:
if everyone is increase 10 times or more of the hard-disk capacity scale, will this end up use more energy than bitcoins mining? 💯
M1dn1ghtN1nj4
commented
3 years ago Yeah, I'm done with Chia. The biggest problem is "proof of space". As outlined from Chia git, if two people pass all the challenges, the guy with the larger size of all plots combined get the reward. That means that the guy at the top who LITERALLY has the most space, is going to get nearly EVERY win, as he will always have the most combined plot space.
This has become a monopoly by ONE user. The network stats speak for themselves. If you can't afford hundreds of thousands of dollars of massive hard drives, and keep that purchase stream going EVERY DAY, you'll never catch up, and will likely spend the rest of your life in debt.
Don't expect to make your money back here. It's basically a guarantee that you'll get next to nothing now.
haptikfeedback
commented
3 years ago I disagree - well... Kind of. I see people on reddit who have won. I guess it could be a lie.
On Tue, May 11, 2021, 9:46 PM M1dn1ght N1nj4 @.***> wrote:
Yeah, I'm done with Chia. The biggest problem is "proof of space". As outlined from Chia git, if two people pass all the challenges, the guy with the larger size of all plots combined get the reward. That means that the guy at the top who LITERALLY has the most space, is going to get nearly EVERY win, as he will always have the most combined plot space.
This has become a monopoly by ONE user. The network stats speak for themselves. If you can't afford hundreds of thousands of dollars of massive hard drives, and keep that purchase stream going EVERY DAY, you'll never catch up, and will likely spend the rest of your life in debt.
Don't expect to make your money back here. It's basically a guarantee that you'll get next to nothing now.
— You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/issues/3509#issuecomment-839429770, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AH3DZMBP2MMLDHZCRUCK4V3TNIB2VANCNFSM44AMETVQ .
awesomeferret
commented
3 years ago So, has anyone figured out why there's now 9 checks to pass instead of the 3 that was there a few weeks ago? The most I've ever gotten that I notice is 1, failing 1 out of 3 in bad enough, but why do the checks keep adding on? The FAQ in Chia continues to age worse and worse, everyone take screenshots of it because it's actually embarrassing now. Every single "benefit" aside from energy consumption has been completely trashed and proven as nonsense, and frankly we should have seen most of this coming in hindsight. Many of us realized what was happening as it got past 2 eib, but still, some of the Chia FAQ and some articles/blogs/videos have aged to the point of insulting and effectively dishonest. If someone was ignorant and didn't take the timing into account, one would think that many YouTubers and bloggers are flat out lying about Chia since most of the writing about it has aged horribly. If the Chia creators really want to put their money where their mouth is, then it's time to shut down mainnet and start all over. Yes, measures that drastic are probably necessary if the creating engineers actually mean what they said. Will that happen? Obviously not. The conspiracy theories are going to run wild with this one though, maybe to the point of the FTC getting involved since what has basically happened here is that a currency was created out of thin air that basically only has value to the richest people. I know it's not money laundering, but it sure doesn't smell right, even if it actually is. There's just too much of a contrast between the stated intentions of Chia and the outcome. Remember people, the plan is to artificially devalue (reduce the reward rate, I know, but what do you think this will do the the value) Chia every few years, look it up. That's a huge red flag, either the Chia engineers really are inept when it comes to thinking outside the box or they knew from the beginning that Chia was going to become a rich person's game even while saying the exact opposite in the FAQs. I can think of no reason to artificially reduce the reward rate. Make no mistake though, the idea that Chia was launched publicly without any pooling at the very least is worthy of termination of employment of anyone who okayed that idea, otherwise if they actually weren't that inept and internally foresaw this outcome, then the FTC really does need to get involved. It many ways, Chia is setting back trust in crypto. I know there are anti crypto weirdos out there, and Chia is one the the best arguments to date against crypto. Again, as more and more time goes on, the harder it is for me to believe that every single person who designed Chia didn't see this coming. Screenshot stuff, I think the FAQs are about to quietly change along with the officially stated intent of Chia. There is hope though: Chia is open source! I forsee a few forks and "alt" variants of Chia that are actually sensibly designed. They won't be worth nearly as much, but it will guarantee you some income (even if it's less than you spend on the power on storage) instead of placing you in a lottery that favors the rich.
s-tb
commented
3 years ago Annnnnnnnnnnd the calculations to be " successful " at ChiaCoin are in:
Yeah, I'm done with Chia. The biggest problem is "proof of space". As outlined from Chia git, if two people pass all the challenges, the guy with the larger size of all plots combined get the reward. That means that the guy at the top who LITERALLY has the most space, is going to get nearly EVERY win, as he will always have the most combined plot space.
This has become a monopoly by ONE user. The network stats speak for themselves. If you can't afford hundreds of thousands of dollars of massive hard drives, and keep that purchase stream going EVERY DAY, you'll never catch up, and will likely spend the rest of your life in debt.
Don't expect to make your money back here. It's basically a guarantee that you'll get next to nothing now.
@M1dn1ghtN1nj4 we have FINALLY gotten to THE crux of this whole topic. Being " chosen " and this is where we queue the gif/meme from Toy Story " oooooooooooooh I've been chosen " because by your math Chia is fully coded specifically to reward what I've been calling here " always on " systems unless I'm wrong here. Again I ask, would't you do the same if you were ( from the start ) trying to build a fully distributed neural network storage system ? But that's a topic for another philosophical CS and EE conversation about the necessary components for a " universal " computer / general AI system ;)
BUT, back to the point here we need therefore to ask TWO questions:
1) what is the min " accepted " storage size before winning becomes more " likely " because by your rationale ( and network stats which I bet everyone would like to see - not that I'm doubting you at all ) the bigger the farm, the more likely that person get's the win. Now this is NOT the way a true lottery works: Lotto, Powerball, etc.,, they are all balls in a bucket. 100% random. You are suggesting that more tickets ( plots ) ready to go means a higher likelyhood that a big player ( and yes, even more when formal pooling starts ) gets the win. Again, I repeat the above re: what would be needed for a very large scale distributed neural ( always on ) network, and this is a good way: rewarding for " always on " plots. Regardless, what IS that % chance that more TB's online means you win ?
because this leads me to ....
2) if a person puts, say 100tb online ( as I've been talking about ) at the current EiB's of storage our there now, and by the ChiaCalculator that @s12321 just posted, ya, 100 plots = $9K in 6mo. SIX months ? And NO gaurantee you will in fact get a " win " so thus be paid ? Ok, well maybe, this is a great start. However, if I did my math and configuring Chia Calculator correctly:
if I wanted to put 10TB on line that requires exactly FIVE 18Tb drives. Now you think, ok, that 's not that bad right ? I'll go out and buy 5 x 18tb dirves. I can affort that. This, in the end gives a return of $4.50k in only ONE month at the current market rate of the Chia coins IF I put those FULLY plotted 10tb online ASAP yes ?
THEN however comes the BIG rub in ALL of this:
3) if I started from scratch and started plotting on a VERY fast system ( and I'd have to buy a processing / plotting rig to do that: another 2K at least OR by 600 plots already completed online which usually go for about 12-15 each ) meaning another 12* 600 = 7200 and ONLY to get 4K back in 1mo. Now that is REDICULOUS and there is NO gaurantee that you will get chosen to " win " the ability to get paid.
4) and then comes the MAJOR ( possible ) screw in all of this, IF you extend this out to say 1yr, to assume that, ya, you want to keep farming, and you choose from the chia calculator " earning over time = 1yr " you magically see, WOW can get USD after 1 year $37.42k so you think wow that's great! BUT................
this assumes your plot is up and running from day #1. So, you think, sure I can just be patient and mine that 10TB myself, 1TB per day, so really you can't start farming until 100 days from when you start, or roughly in 3mo you are set to go, set to farm. BUT this is again ( IF and ONLY if you are chosen to be be paid - via the lottery system ) AND which requires you to KEEP adding TB's so that you continue to be chosen often. Why? Because with the Chia Calculator set to a " earning over time = 1yr " window, scrolling down you see something VERRRRRY interesting, your " Estimated Storage Costs " just shot up to Storage Costs to $9.12k to START. This is not the same 5 x 18tb drives you bought if you started with just 1mo as your expectation for your 1st Chia farming investment. Thus, for a 1yr farming window starting with 100tb, you have to have TWENTY FOUR 18tb drives online to KEEP farming for 1yr giving you USD after 1 year $37.42k and with the WHOLE assumption that you do in fact win opportunities AND someone does not come online with the worlds biggest server farm you never knew even existed. Best part, the ChiaCalculator ( in the above example ) does NOT account for electricity cost eg, an initial 100tb rig running on a dell blade with 8 SATA ports for the 5 x 18tb drives + your SATA drive for the OS of the system and another SSD needed bringinng the total dive bays up to 8 is up to 8000 wats of electricity every year. That means almost 1500-2000$ in extra electricity cost for that dell blade rig to run your Chia farm. And this is PER 8 drives. 24 drives to be online with your original 100TB over a 1yr period is $1500 for 8 drives or $4500 for 24 drives for that 1yr farming window.
Thus 100TB online TODAY ( 600 plots to start ) and KEEP 600 plots online: $9120 = 24 x $380 HDDs ( to KEEP 600 plots online for a year ) $3000 = min for 1 PC & power supplies or 3 cheap blade boxes w/24 drive slots $4500 = $1500 per 8 drives + blade computers in electricity costs -$16,620 TOTAL cost +$37.420 POSSIBLE total revenue IF you win to be able to farm +$20,780 POSSIBLE ( NO guarantee ) net profit if Chia Coin @ today's price in ONE year
CONCLUSION: ????????? Who the hell knows! But I hope everyone has a big wallet to see what MIGHT happen it could be amazing all told. :)
fl00die
commented
3 years ago Crikey thats interesting.... So.. lets say i started today to fill 100tb with plots at say 15 per day. Being as realistic as possible, yes i realise its a lot of luck, but what kind of total return would i have seen 12 months from now?
Edit : how funny i think i just asked a question which was unintentionally answered and posted at exactly the same time
s-tb
commented
3 years ago @fl00die as you were asking this, I was computing it See above: 100TB today is roughly ( if the universe works for you ) $37K in in one year IF you spend $9000 in HDD drive costs not to mention the rest you need to invest roughly $16-17K today ( and pray ) that in one year you get $37K
happy farming my fellow farmers. ;)
fl00die
commented
3 years ago Ok. Thats stb!... So i already have the drives. Not ahuge amount more to get something up and running. Total spend would be circa $2500 (not inc running costs). If i could make at least this back within a year then what the hell, it would be worth it for me and the kind of fun of doing it. Why not
s-tb
commented
3 years ago @fl00die you are welcome, but PLEASE check with everyone else to make sure there is no confusion with my numbers. REMEMBER, if and ONLY if you have TWENTY FOUR 18tb drives can you use the 1yr calculations for the $37K. $2500 invested today in 100tb MIGHT allow that 100TB some unknown payback ( supposedly ) however IF you held it for just 1mo and that WHOLE month you are farming and NO plotting you might get more. It's a shame in a way, 100tb today is maybe worth noting in 1yr. 100TB ( basically what $2500 gets you : 600 plots ) would take 1tb/day or 100 days to plot: JUST to get ready for farming. As everyone else jumps in and the network grows and grows and grows, who know what anyones $2500 might be worth in 1yr if you don't get any " wins " to farm long the way because you aren't " chosen " to farm in that time.
If you wanted to hold the SAME 600 ( or so ) plots for one full YEAR it would be 24 x 18tb drives ( ready to go and fully plotted - and OH the math for that plotting would take some time ) so to do that ALL the servers PLUS electricity AND assuming the per coin price stays the same as today AND your rig is on 24/7 AND AND AND you are " chosen " to farm, well you get the gist here. There are NO guarantees.
Maybe go and buy some plots already done onlne ? $12 per plot * 600 for 100tb of drives = 600 + 2500 for your rig = $3100 for a POSSIBLE $4.1K ( a current coin prices ) in 1 month MAYBE ? guaranteed cash ( or so I've been told ) mine Etherium on just one PC on your desktop ? ;)
DISCLAIMER: all numbers that I've presented are from ChiaCalculator :))))))) and TOTAL guesses who know what will happen wiht Chia Coin ? Noooooooo one knows ( insert angel halo emogi )
fl00die
commented
3 years ago Haha. Great breakdown and advice. Thanks for that. One thing, you mention 600 plots for 100tb... I had calculated just under 1000 plots can be on 100tb? Do i have that wrong. Thanks
s-tb
commented
3 years ago to be honest, it changes every 5 seconds on the chia calculator i adjust the plot size based on selected time window ( 1 mo, 1 yr, etc ) then see how many drives today, it looks like 100tb = 6 x 18tb drives to have 1000 or so plots if you change the window to then 1yr ( that's one YEAR of 1000 plots ) you need more
remember, I based ALL my numbers and logic off of @s12321 's calculations and his Chia Calculator link: https://chiacalculator.com?growth=1.02016664537273&growth_days=30&inf_growth=0&inf_plots=0&init_plots=10240&linear_growth=5242880&max_plots=1014000&plot_speed=1024&stab_days=150&start=today&tab=1&time_frame=180 above
If you just go to the chia calculator, type in 1000 plots ( essentially equalling, I believe 100Tib which is roughly 100 terabytes ) then it says 19K in one year, but again we have NO idea if that will hold, if you will be chosen, etc., AND fully assumes that you are farming ( NOT plotting ) from day 1: 1 FULL year of 100% farming.
but again, whoooooooooooo knows ? :))))
brezapour81
commented
3 years ago If people are interest, we are launching a UK hosted Chia Pool soon called https://Seedpool.org. Check it out.
fl00die
commented
3 years ago Yes who knows indeed!! Thank you. So, Even at 15% of that ill take as fair play. It was fun worth a shot
The difficulty has become so high that it no longer makes sense to farm this crypt. And the difficulty continues to grow at an unimaginable rate. The farming of this crypt is dead.