People can't stop having pompous neverending discussions on a closed issue

[WeirdPhrog]

The difficulty has become so high that it no longer makes sense to farm this crypt. And the difficulty continues to grow at an unimaginable rate. The farming of this crypt is dead.

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

Very nice presentation with the math. Actually very well put together. Nice work!

But I'm going to boil it down to this.

Look at a die. 6 sides. Let's say my plot space is the 1. The calculator would say I have a 1 in 6 chance of winning, which is mathematically correct. But I CAN roll the die 50 times, and get a 1. That 1-in-6 (~17%) just became 1-in-50 (2%).

Scale that up to the size of the network, and you begin to see why most people won't actually get any wins.

The calculator assumes you'll hit the win at the exact interval based on the stats you enter.

It can project $38k, and in reality you may never get a dime.

Don't take the results from the calculator as any form of guarantee of return.

On Wed, May 12, 2021, 7:24 AM fl00die @.***> wrote:

Yes who knows indeed!! Thank you. So, Even at 15% of that ill take as fair play. It was fun worth a shot

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[fl00die]

Hi guys. Youd think from all the realistic criticism above that im mad but i have most the gear so why not... The last thing i am somewhat unsure of, if anyone can point me in the direction that would be great(its not in the beginners guide)

I have the break out card which enables me to physically connect my 10x 10tb internal drives however do i keep them all as their own assigned drive letter and within the chia GUI when i do a plot session i simply work through the drives and fill them up? Or do i add all 100TB as some kind of pool in the chia software?.... Finally if i wanted to move these 10x drives off of this powerful plotting rig to only continue the lower powered farming aspect is that fairly straight forward also? Thank you.

[s-tb]

@M1dn1ghtN1nj4 well, you know phrase, the math is the math ;)

BUT re: your math above and " random " and re: your " That 1-in-6 (~17%) just became 1-in-50 (2%). " wellllllll, you forgot this is not random. It it were it would be a X sided dice with you and everyone else on the network then there would be a dice rolled once every 18 seconds and THEN You'd have: [ (x) / ( # of total number active of users online) ] and NOT [ ( x ) / [ ( # of total drives or plots online ) * (some magic sauce multiplier ) ] ]

Just like NO ONE really knows or can put on paper what and how the google, bing, yahoo, yandex, badiu, etc., internet search algorythem results works in any way, so to, NO ONE knows what the true math of the Chia system coin win assignment is or how you get chosen to be an active farmer and get paid for it. Welcome to the fun of the internet everyone. :)))

What we might be able to surmise is with all the plot verifications, plot reviews, before you are allowed to farm, ( and again here is comes - the supposition ) that IF the Chia network were developed to be some advanced storage neural network block chain system for whatever purpose it has been made ( and NOT as a simple computation block chain system based like Bitcoin, Etherium, etc. .) then the " value " of the chia nodes is not computation but storage system up time reward based. Thus:

• if your 100tb rig is online and ready to go often
• if your 100tb rig does it's job processing blocks often
• if your 100tb rig keeps adding more storage ( you are buying in often ) then your chances of " winnning " goes UP

BUT, i would LOVE to have anyone from the Chia Coin network developers forum to chime in and confirm this, soooooo, if anyone knows who we can @XXX call then we certainly can get an answer, else, it's put your drives up, have your drives fully plotted and ready to go, and hoolllllld on because our guess: 1) $700 dell server w/8 drive ports 2) $1616 = 6 x 18tb drives for 100tb totoal 3) $4000gbp = to buy 1000 plots ready to go @ 4.00 per plot. 4) $2000/yr for the rig and all drives to be online for 1 full year $38,000 is only POSSIBLE

• $8,314 in running costs $29,684 is POSSIBLE after expenses & COMPLETELY on a random chance to " win " to farm.

insert halo emoji : but then again whooooooo knows ? ;) Etherium ? put a rig online = paid ! Dfinity ? and it's new ' Internet Computer ' cryptocurrency ? the beginning of how universal social income. whoooo knows ;)

[haptikfeedback]

@M1dn1ghtN1nj4 well, you know phrase, the math is the math ;)

BUT re: your math above and " random " and re: your " That 1-in-6 (~17%) just became 1-in-50 (2%). " wellllllll, you forgot this is not random. It it were it would be a X sided dice with you and everyone else on the network then there would be a dice rolled once every 18 seconds and THEN You'd have: [ (x) / ( # of total number active of users online) ] and NOT [ ( x ) / [ ( # of total drives or plots online ) * (some magic sauce multiplier ) ] ]

Just like NO ONE really knows or can put on paper what and how the google, bing, yahoo, yandex, badiu, etc., internet search algorythem results works in any way, so to, NO ONE knows what the true math of the Chia system coin win assignment is or how you get chosen to be an active farmer and get paid for it. Welcome to the fun of the internet everyone. :)))

What we might be able to surmise is with all the plot verifications, plot reviews, before you are allowed to farm, ( and again here is comes - the supposition ) that IF the Chia network were developed to be some advanced storage neural network block chain system for whatever purpose it has been made ( and NOT as a simple computation block chain system based like Bitcoin, Etherium, etc. .) then the " value " of the chia nodes is not computation but storage system up time reward based. Thus:

• if your 100tb rig is online and ready to go often
• if your 100tb rig does it's job processing blocks often
• if your 100tb rig keeps adding more storage ( you are buying in often ) then your chances of " winnning " goes UP

BUT, i would LOVE to have anyone from the Chia Coin network developers forum to chime in and confirm this, soooooo, if anyone knows who we can @xxx call then we certainly can get an answer, else, it's put your drives up, have your drives fully plotted and ready to go, and hoolllllld on because our guess:

1. $700 dell server w/8 drive ports
2. $1616 = 6 x 18tb drives for 100tb totoal
3. $4000gbp = to buy 1000 plots ready to go @ 4.00 per plot.
4. $2000/yr for the rig and all drives to be online for 1 full year $38,000 is only POSSIBLE

• $8,314 in running costs $29,684 is POSSIBLE after expenses & COMPLETELY on a random chance to " win " to farm.

insert halo emoji : but then again whooooooo knows ? ;) Etherium ? put a rig online = paid ! Dfinity ? and it's new ' Internet Computer ' cryptocurrency ? the beginning of how universal social income. whoooo knows ;)

You know - I think you have a pretty good understanding. The way you win is 1 Plot = 1 lotto ticket If your plot passes the filter, you're in the game. If you find a proof, you won the lotto. There may be others who also one... "There can be only one" - A highlander battle commences and you must take the head of the other winners. Whoever is standing last wins. The one with the most plots wins by default.

Time is also a factor in this math somewhere. It's super confusing.

[s-tb]

Someone @ call one of the developers here on GitHub and let's really find out ;)

but " 1 Plot = 1 lotto ticket If your plot passes the filter, you're in the game. " meaning THEN you get to be on the dice that is rolled THEN.... " If you find a proof, you won the lotto. There may be others " THEN..... " The one with the most plots wins by default. " IF you are online and able to " complete " the work

.... Just like a good neuron :))))))))))))))

but really, SOMEONE # call one of the developers and ask . I'm sure the whole internet would be interested in the black box that is the Chia lottery engine ;)

[StavrosD]

" The one with the most plots wins by default. " If one winner is a solo farmer and another winner is a pool farmer, who wins if the solo farmer has more plots than the pool farmer?

Does the algorithm take in account only the farmers plots or the pool plots?

[s12321]

if you're using only free space to support chia, you wont get reward at all at this point 3.14 EiB in netspace now. unless you create 25 plots a day to catch up (consume 50 tbw/day) and cost 5TB/day storage (assume 2.5TB farming and 2.5TB plots backup) at this point. there is no point. Since a harddisk is more than $20/TB now. Unless, applied limit to plots or required a license to farm lol ...

5 days after my post, it is 4.38 EiB in netspace now. it looks like will reach 10EiB at the end of June - my pre-ordered 10TB will be in stock 💯 how ironic ...

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

Good luck. You may find this to be more of a time/money waster than you think.

On Thu, May 13, 2021, 8:39 PM s12321 @.***> wrote:

if you're using only free space to support chia, you wont get reward at all at this point 3.14 EiB in netspace now. unless you create 25 plots a day to catch up (consume 50 tbw/day) and cost 5TB/day storage (assume 2.5TB farming and 2.5TB plots backup) at this point. there is no point. Since a harddisk is more than $20/TB now. Unless, applied limit to plots or required a license to farm lol ...

5 days after my post, it is 4.38 EiB in netspace now. it looks like will reach 10EiB at the end of June - my pre-ordered 10TB will be in stock 💯 how ironic ...

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[s12321]

Annnnnnnnnnnd the calculations to be " successful " at ChiaCoin are in:

Yeah, I'm done with Chia. The biggest problem is "proof of space". As outlined from Chia git, if two people pass all the challenges, the guy with the larger size of all plots combined get the reward. That means that the guy at the top who LITERALLY has the most space, is going to get nearly EVERY win, as he will always have the most combined plot space. This has become a monopoly by ONE user. The network stats speak for themselves. If you can't afford hundreds of thousands of dollars of massive hard drives, and keep that purchase stream going EVERY DAY, you'll never catch up, and will likely spend the rest of your life in debt. Don't expect to make your money back here. It's basically a guarantee that you'll get next to nothing now.

@M1dn1ghtN1nj4 we have FINALLY gotten to THE crux of this whole topic. Being " chosen " and this is where we queue the gif/meme from Toy Story " oooooooooooooh I've been chosen " because by your math Chia is fully coded specifically to reward what I've been calling here " always on " systems unless I'm wrong here. Again I ask, would't you do the same if you were ( from the start ) trying to build a fully distributed neural network storage system ? But that's a topic for another philosophical CS and EE conversation about the necessary components for a " universal " computer / general AI system ;)

BUT, back to the point here we need therefore to ask TWO questions:

1. what is the min " accepted " storage size before winning becomes more " likely " because by your rationale ( and network stats which I bet everyone would like to see - not that I'm doubting you at all ) the bigger the farm, the more likely that person get's the win. Now this is NOT the way a true lottery works: Lotto, Powerball, etc.,, they are all balls in a bucket. 100% random. You are suggesting that more tickets ( plots ) ready to go means a higher likelyhood that a big player ( and yes, even more when formal pooling starts ) gets the win. Again, I repeat the above re: what would be needed for a very large scale distributed neural ( always on ) network, and this is a good way: rewarding for " always on " plots. Regardless, what IS that % chance that more TB's online means you win ?

because this leads me to ....

1. if a person puts, say 100tb online ( as I've been talking about ) at the current EiB's of storage our there now, and by the ChiaCalculator that @s12321 just posted, ya, 100 plots = $9K in 6mo. SIX months ? And NO gaurantee you will in fact get a " win " so thus be paid ? Ok, well maybe, this is a great start. However, if I did my math and configuring Chia Calculator correctly:
   ![2](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/83975769/117945118-e8fc7680-b305-11eb-8d54-d712f936e38d.png)
   if I wanted to put 10TB on line that requires exactly FIVE 18Tb drives. Now you think, ok, that 's not that bad right ? I'll go out and buy 5 x 18tb dirves. I can affort that. This, in the end gives a return of $4.50k in only ONE month at the current market rate of the Chia coins IF I put those FULLY plotted 10tb online ASAP yes ?

THEN however comes the BIG rub in ALL of this:

1. if I started from scratch and started plotting on a VERY fast system ( and I'd have to buy a processing / plotting rig to do that: another 2K at least OR by 600 plots already completed online which usually go for about 12-15 each ) meaning another 12* 600 = 7200 and ONLY to get 4K back in 1mo. Now that is REDICULOUS and there is NO gaurantee that you will get chosen to " win " the ability to get paid.

2. and then comes the MAJOR ( possible ) screw in all of this, IF you extend this out to say 1yr, to assume that, ya, you want to keep farming, and you choose from the chia calculator " earning over time = 1yr " you magically see, WOW can get USD* after 1 year $37.42k so you think wow that's great! BUT................
   ![1](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/83975769/117945003-ca967b00-b305-11eb-827f-7b2f40966349.png)
   this assumes your plot is up and running from day #1. So, you think, sure I can just be patient and mine that 10TB myself, 1TB per day, so really you can't start farming until 100 days from when you start, or roughly in 3mo you are set to go, set to farm. BUT this is again ( IF and ONLY if you are chosen to be be paid - via the lottery system ) AND which requires you to KEEP adding TB's so that you continue to be chosen often. Why? Because with the Chia Calculator set to a " earning over time = 1yr " window, scrolling down you see something VERRRRRY interesting, your " Estimated Storage Costs " just shot up to Storage Costs to $9.12k to START. This is not the same 5 x 18tb drives you bought if you started with just 1mo as your expectation for your 1st Chia farming investment. Thus,  for a 1yr farming window starting with 100tb, you have to have TWENTY FOUR 18tb drives online to KEEP farming for 1yr giving you USD* after 1 year $37.42k and with the WHOLE assumption that you do in fact win opportunities AND someone does not come online with the worlds biggest server farm you never knew even existed. Best part, the ChiaCalculator ( in the above example ) does NOT account for electricity cost eg, an initial 100tb rig running on a dell blade with 8 SATA ports for the 5 x 18tb drives + your SATA drive for the OS of the system and another SSD needed bringinng the total dive bays up to 8 is up to 8000 wats of electricity every year. That means almost 1500-2000$ in extra electricity cost for that dell blade rig to run your Chia farm. And this is PER 8 drives. 24 drives to be online with your original 100TB over a 1yr period is $1500 for 8 drives or $4500 for 24 drives for that 1yr farming window.

Thus 100TB online TODAY ( 600 plots to start ) and KEEP 600 plots online: $9120 = 24 x $380 HDDs ( to KEEP 600 plots online for a year ) $3000 = min for 1 PC & power supplies or 3 cheap blade boxes w/24 drive slots $4500 = $1500 per 8 drives + blade computers in electricity costs -$16,620 TOTAL cost +$37.420 POSSIBLE total revenue IF you win to be able to farm +$20,780 POSSIBLE ( NO guarantee ) net profit if Chia Coin @ today's price in ONE year

CONCLUSION: ????????? Who the hell knows! But I hope everyone has a big wallet to see what MIGHT happen it could be amazing all told. :)

i think the factor of 15% weekly netspace growth is not accurate now. it looks like 55% per week (((4.38EiB-3.14Eib)/5/3.14EiB)*7)%. enjoy 🚀 🤣

earn nothing, if XCH does not grow 10 times in price 😆

https://chiacalculator.com?growth=1.064609267936251&growth_days=30&inf_growth=0&inf_plots=0&init_plots=10240&linear_growth=5242880&max_plots=1014000&plot_speed=1024&stab_days=150&start=today&tab=1&time_frame=180

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

I bought a small server blade from a friend today. Hold 6x 2.5" drives. I'll add in the driver's that I already have (Total 7TB or so), and see what it does. If I don't see any results, I'll just convert it over to a home NAS and call it quits.

On Thu, May 13, 2021, 9:20 PM s12321 @.***> wrote:

Annnnnnnnnnnd the calculations to be " successful " at ChiaCoin are in:

Yeah, I'm done with Chia. The biggest problem is "proof of space". As outlined from Chia git, if two people pass all the challenges, the guy with the larger size of all plots combined get the reward. That means that the guy at the top who LITERALLY has the most space, is going to get nearly EVERY win, as he will always have the most combined plot space. This has become a monopoly by ONE user. The network stats speak for themselves. If you can't afford hundreds of thousands of dollars of massive hard drives, and keep that purchase stream going EVERY DAY, you'll never catch up, and will likely spend the rest of your life in debt. Don't expect to make your money back here. It's basically a guarantee that you'll get next to nothing now.

@M1dn1ghtN1nj4 https://github.com/M1dn1ghtN1nj4 we have FINALLY gotten to THE crux of this whole topic. Being " chosen " and this is where we queue the gif/meme from Toy Story " oooooooooooooh I've been chosen " because by your math Chia is fully coded specifically to reward what I've been calling here " always on " systems unless I'm wrong here. Again I ask, would't you do the same if you were ( from the start ) trying to build a fully distributed neural network storage system ? But that's a topic for another philosophical CS and EE conversation about the necessary components for a " universal " computer / general AI system ;)

BUT, back to the point here we need therefore to ask TWO questions:

1. what is the min " accepted " storage size before winning becomes more " likely " because by your rationale ( and network stats which I bet everyone would like to see - not that I'm doubting you at all ) the bigger the farm, the more likely that person get's the win. Now this is NOT the way a true lottery works: Lotto, Powerball, etc.,, they are all balls in a bucket. 100% random. You are suggesting that more tickets ( plots ) ready to go means a higher likelyhood that a big player ( and yes, even more when formal pooling starts ) gets the win. Again, I repeat the above re: what would be needed for a very large scale distributed neural ( always on ) network, and this is a good way: rewarding for " always on " plots. Regardless, what IS that % chance that more TB's online means you win ?

because this leads me to ....

1. if a person puts, say 100tb online ( as I've been talking about ) at the current EiB's of storage our there now, and by the ChiaCalculator that @s12321 just posted, ya, 100 plots = $9K in 6mo. SIX months ? And NO gaurantee you will in fact get a " win " so thus be paid ? Ok, well maybe, this is a great start. However, if I did my math and configuring Chia Calculator correctly:

   

   if I wanted to put 10TB on line that requires exactly FIVE 18Tb drives. Now you think, ok, that 's not that bad right ? I'll go out and buy 5 x 18tb dirves. I can affort that. This, in the end gives a return of $4.50k in only ONE month at the current market rate of the Chia coins IF I put those FULLY plotted 10tb online ASAP yes ?

THEN however comes the BIG rub in ALL of this:

1. if I started from scratch and started plotting on a VERY fast system ( and I'd have to buy a processing / plotting rig to do that: another 2K at least OR by 600 plots already completed online which usually go for about 12-15 each ) meaning another 12* 600 = 7200 and ONLY to get 4K back in 1mo. Now that is REDICULOUS and there is NO gaurantee that you will get chosen to " win " the ability to get paid.

2. and then comes the MAJOR ( possible ) screw in all of this, IF you extend this out to say 1yr, to assume that, ya, you want to keep farming, and you choose from the chia calculator " earning over time = 1yr " you magically see, WOW can get USD* after 1 year $37.42k so you think wow that's great! BUT................

   

   this assumes your plot is up and running from day #1. So, you think, sure I can just be patient and mine that 10TB myself, 1TB per day, so really you can't start farming until 100 days from when you start, or roughly in 3mo you are set to go, set to farm. BUT this is again ( IF and ONLY if you are chosen to be be paid - via the lottery system ) AND which requires you to KEEP adding TB's so that you continue to be chosen often. Why? Because with the Chia Calculator set to a " earning over time = 1yr " window, scrolling down you see something VERRRRRY interesting, your " Estimated Storage Costs " just shot up to Storage Costs to $9.12k to START. This is not the same 5 x 18tb drives you bought if you started with just 1mo as your expectation for your 1st Chia farming investment. Thus, for a 1yr farming window starting with 100tb, you have to have TWENTY FOUR 18tb drives online to KEEP farming for 1yr giving you USD* after 1 year $37.42k and with the WHOLE assumption that you do in fact win opportunities AND someone does not come online with the worlds biggest server farm you never knew even existed. Best part, the ChiaCalculator ( in the above example ) does NOT account for electricity cost eg, an initial 100tb rig running on a dell blade with 8 SATA ports for the 5 x 18tb drives + your SATA drive for the OS of the system and another SSD needed bringinng the total dive bays up to 8 is up to 8000 wats of electricity every year. That means almost 1500-2000$ in extra electricity cost for that dell blade rig to run your Chia farm. And this is PER 8 drives. 24 drives to be online with your original 100TB over a 1yr period is $1500 for 8 drives or $4500 for 24 drives for that 1yr farming window.

Thus 100TB online TODAY ( 600 plots to start ) and KEEP 600 plots online: $9120 = 24 x $380 HDDs ( to KEEP 600 plots online for a year ) $3000 = min for 1 PC & power supplies or 3 cheap blade boxes w/24 drive slots $4500 = $1500 per 8 drives + blade computers in electricity costs -$16,620 TOTAL cost +$37.420 POSSIBLE total revenue IF you win to be able to farm +$20,780 POSSIBLE ( NO guarantee ) net profit if Chia Coin @ today's price in ONE year

CONCLUSION: ????????? Who the hell knows! But I hope everyone has a big wallet to see what MIGHT happen it could be amazing all told. :)

i think the factor of 15% weekly netspace growth is not accurate now. it looks like 55% per week (((4.38EiB-3.14Eib)/5/3.14EiB)*7)%. enjoy 🚀 🤣

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[danielnrubens]

Using the calculator last night the realization dawned on me. It’s not 15% growth, or 55% growth, right now it’s closer to 100% weekly growth! Pooling option comes on the table Monday. If you’re starting now (as I unfortunately am) your ROI is negative and accelerating.

[fl00die]

Once you have plotted is it easy to then move all your 100tb of drives to a new, much more lower powered PC? I assume you install chia on that then use your private what ever key/phrase thing then it can continue farming on that new PC? Is that right?

[nightflyerkilo]

Using the calculator last night the realization dawned on me. It’s not 15% growth, or 55% growth, right now it’s closer to 100% weekly growth! Pooling option comes on the table Monday. If you’re starting now (as I unfortunately am) your ROI is negative and accelerating.

Yeah, I figured it at about 95% per week over the past two weeks. Here's my prediction:

If you buy an 18 TiB drive now and fill it up at 1 TiB/day, expect to make less than half the cost of the drive back in the next 3 months. That 3 month window also represents about 2/3 of the lifetime expected earnings of the drive. Maybe my numbers won't be so dire and the growth won't be so bad as people decide it's not worth it and give up. But I still expect this to reach an equilibrium where farming with drives bought at retail prices won't be profitable (and I think it likely already isn't).

[awesomeferret]

I'm actually surprised that the FAQ is still the way it is on the website. At this point, they should be worried about newcomers reading the FAQ and thinking that they are lying or being malicious. Chia as is simply CANNOT fulfill the goals claimed by the original creators. It's going to fuel conspiracy theories, maybe even ones legitimate enough to warrant legal action someday. Even pools can't save Chia, it never will be viable for the vast majority of people, which is in direct contrast to the claimed intent. I guess the positive aspect of this is that hard drive prices are unlikely to be affected as badly as we all thought, but again, that's because the economics of Chia are almost exactly the opposite of what the Chia founders claimed it would be. Again, I'm surprised that the Chia founders aren't scared of legal repercussions since the EXACT OPPOSITE of most of the claimed goals were has come to be and in a very short time, and in retrospect it should have been easy to predict (that's what happens when enough people take claims at face value, I am certainly guilty of this myself with Chia, I'm not trying to act superior or anything here).

[CraftInsights]

It really is a shame, I kind of regret giving Chia a chance.

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

This is pointless now. Best to go spend your time and money elsewhere.

On Sat, May 15, 2021, 12:15 AM NapsYork @.***> wrote:

It really is a shame, I kind of regret giving Chia a chance.

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[einsz]

Using the calculator last night the realization dawned on me. It’s not 15% growth, or 55% growth, right now it’s closer to 100% weekly growth! Pooling option comes on the table Monday. If you’re starting now (as I unfortunately am) your ROI is negative and accelerating.

Yeah, I figured it at about 95% per week over the past two weeks. Here's my prediction:

These predictions are way off. A growth of 95% (or even 50%) is completely unsusainable. At 95% we would hit the size of the 2021 total hard disk market (approx. 1 ZB) already in July. Like, globally all drives sold in 2021 (even tho we are only half way trough the year). Still, at 50% we would hit it in August-September. So it would have stop to grow exponentially quite some time before that.

[fl00die]

Ok jesus. Well i am about to start with 100TB in just over a weeks time. Wondering if i should cancel my hard ware orders and not bother. Do you think with 100tb i wont even farm a coin within a year?

[einsz]

This is all predictions. No one can say how much the Chia network will actually grow in the next weeks. Currently, especially without pools, its all lottery tickets and weather forecast. Join in if you have trust in Chia and the developers.

[nightflyerkilo]

Ok jesus. Well i am about to start with 100TB in just over a weeks time. Wondering if i should cancel my hard ware orders and not bother. Do you think with 100tb i wont even farm a coin within a year?

You should probably play with the numbers yourself and decide what you think seems realistic and what amount of risk you're willing to accept. There are a lot of variables and it's hard to say what will actually happen, and I'm not a financial advisor. In light of einsz's comment I fiddled with my numbers some more to produce this, which I think might be a more realistic outlook. From this it looks like starting today, and assuming you plot 3 TiB per day, you could expect to have approximately 2.18 coins (1 win) within a year, ignoring any other plotting you do in the meantime. You stand to lose about 0.3 coins by waiting a week, though. At 3 years you'd be up to about 3.5 coins if starting today. Bear in mind, even if that plot is accurate, there's a significant chance you still wouldn't have any by simple bad luck, so the level of risk here is essentially your entire investment.

[fl00die]

Hmm yes interesting. Could earn a few coins in a couple of years and then to hope the coin itself goes up in value.... Or perhaps just buy a few coins outright now and save the maybes of farming one

[ronjonz]

No official pooling until end of May. Not Monday. With solo farming you have to win the total block or you lose. With pooling your total netspace is way better and as a member of the pool you can win an increment of a block way more frequently than solo. Solo farming is just wasting your storage and compute at this point. Plus you have to freaking replot anything you have right now to join a pool.

[fl00die]

Replot? So if i use a high end rig to plot then transfer to a low end rig to farm, should i decide to join a pool then id need to refire up that high end rig again and redo all those plots??? Damn

[ronjonz]

Replot? So if i use a high end rig to plot then transfer to a low end rig to farm, should i decide to join a pool then id need to refire up that high end rig again and redo all those plots??? Damn

Yea current plots are not poolable. So if you have spent days/weeks plotting for solo and eventually want to join a pool when they are official. You will have to replot every damn one of them.

[danielnrubens]

Ok jesus. Well i am about to start with 100TB in just over a weeks time. Wondering if i should cancel my hard ware orders and not bother. Do you think with 100tb i wont even farm a coin within a year?

Man, I highly suggest you learn how to use that calculator… fast. You’ll have 84 TiB of actual usable space and if you start in a week your returns are almost zero. Punch in the right data and then look at the chart a week out. Your return skyrockets down around the 26th. You “may” be able to get “something” back but it will be a fraction of your hardware cost. I believe in the devs, that’s why I’m not irate but this is real money we’re talking about here (at least the money we’re putting into hardware.) Why do you think the devs keep saying, “use what you have lying around” it’s because you won’t lose any additional hardware investment. Learn how to use that calculator.

[nightflyerkilo]

And yet the calculator "helpfully" links to the multi thousand dollar system you can buy to do all the plotting and farming you just calculated out, encouraging users to buy new hardware for it.

[fullet-tortuga]

One could think some hardware manufactures would be behind the whole thing. What could be next? Sell more graphics cards? Oh wait...

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

I take HUGE issue with whoever this #1 farmer is. The discrepancy between

1 and #2 is FAR too big to be realistic. That's why I say that almost all

the rewards are going to ONE address. Whoever it is, is likely a massive data center, with millions of dollars of equipment, something the rest of us will never be able to beat. That address needs to be taken offline, so the rest of us actually have a chance to get ANYTHING at all. You wonder why you're spending a ton of money on hardware, with essentially zero return? Yeah, it's that guy. You don't stand a chance. This whole crypto has become a joke. Worse of a joke than Doge. Why would I contribute to something with my own money, only to constantly go in DEBT just running it? It's stupid.

On Sat, May 15, 2021 at 3:16 PM fullet-tortuga @.***> wrote:

One could think some hardware manufactures would be behind the whole thing. What could be next? Sell more graphics cards? Oh wait...

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[ghost]

This is exactly like harvesting by hand compared with harvesting with a tractor and those who harvest more will get a reward. From here it is clear that this is ridiculous. But what about the pools? I am not really familiar with the concept but what I think is if there are legit pools this might be profitable. Although I also think the rewards may not be consistent like in the Ethereum pools because of the PoW, PoST principles. I am not even going to discuss the price of this asset. I am just wondering what will be the reward in XCH not in USD.

[shibdib]

I'm taking a step back until pools come out and I'll give it another look. I'll never be a large miner (10TB is probably my cap) and right now Chia is completely pointless with the amount of whales that basically broke farming already.

[nightflyerkilo]

I take HUGE issue with whoever this #1 farmer is. The discrepancy between #1 and #2 is FAR too big to be realistic. That's why I say that almost all the rewards are going to ONE address. Whoever it is, is likely a massive data center, with millions of dollars of equipment, something the rest of us will never be able to beat.

They're not really holding it either. They've cashed in like 90% of what they've made. That probably says something about what they consider the future of this currency to be.

[ronjonz]

I take HUGE issue with whoever this #1 farmer is. The discrepancy between #1 and #2 is FAR too big to be realistic. That's why I say that almost all the rewards are going to ONE address. Whoever it is, is likely a massive data center, with millions of dollars of equipment, something the rest of us will never be able to beat. That address needs to be taken offline, so the rest of us actually have a chance to get ANYTHING at all. You wonder why you're spending a ton of money on hardware, with essentially zero return? Yeah, it's that guy. You don't stand a chance. This whole crypto has become a joke. Worse of a joke than Doge. Why would I contribute to something with my own money, only to constantly go in DEBT just running it? It's stupid. … On Sat, May 15, 2021 at 3:16 PM fullet-tortuga @.***> wrote: One could think some hardware manufactures would be behind the whole thing. What could be next? Sell more graphics cards? Oh wait... — You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#3509 (comment)>, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AJXLIJ3DJGEQJTWUU3P3W43TN3CBHANCNFSM44AMETVQ .

China dominating in just about anything they try:

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

So china owns Chia, basically....

On Sun, May 16, 2021, 12:47 PM ronjonz @.***> wrote:

I take HUGE issue with whoever this #1 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/1 farmer is. The discrepancy between #1 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/1 and #2 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/2 is FAR too big to be realistic. That's why I say that almost all the rewards are going to ONE address. Whoever it is, is likely a massive data center, with millions of dollars of equipment, something the rest of us will never be able to beat. That address needs to be taken offline, so the rest of us actually have a chance to get ANYTHING at all. You wonder why you're spending a ton of money on hardware, with essentially zero return? Yeah, it's that guy. You don't stand a chance. This whole crypto has become a joke. Worse of a joke than Doge. Why would I contribute to something with my own money, only to constantly go in DEBT just running it? It's stupid. … <#m6824251450173915484> On Sat, May 15, 2021 at 3:16 PM fullet-tortuga @.***> wrote: One could think some hardware manufactures would be behind the whole thing. What could be next? Sell more graphics cards? Oh wait... — You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#3509 (comment) https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/issues/3509#issuecomment-841711088>, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AJXLIJ3DJGEQJTWUU3P3W43TN3CBHANCNFSM44AMETVQ .

China dominating in just about anything they try: [image: image] https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/6943970/118405211-b70c4c80-b644-11eb-9dfe-5e262f408d0a.png

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[haptikfeedback]

Which is fine with me - but the method at which chia pays out is now broken. Those guys basically own 50%. So their chance to win is 50% and if they have the oldest plots, it increases their odds even further.

On Sun, May 16, 2021, 10:05 AM M1dn1ght N1nj4 @.***> wrote:

So china owns Chia, basically....

On Sun, May 16, 2021, 12:47 PM ronjonz @.***> wrote:

I take HUGE issue with whoever this #1 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/1 farmer is. The discrepancy between #1 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/1 and #2 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/2 is FAR too big to be realistic. That's why I say that almost all the rewards are going to ONE address. Whoever it is, is likely a massive data center, with millions of dollars of equipment, something the rest of us will never be able to beat. That address needs to be taken offline, so the rest of us actually have a chance to get ANYTHING at all. You wonder why you're spending a ton of money on hardware, with essentially zero return? Yeah, it's that guy. You don't stand a chance. This whole crypto has become a joke. Worse of a joke than Doge. Why would I contribute to something with my own money, only to constantly go in DEBT just running it? It's stupid. … <#m6824251450173915484> On Sat, May 15, 2021 at 3:16 PM fullet-tortuga @.***> wrote: One could think some hardware manufactures would be behind the whole thing. What could be next? Sell more graphics cards? Oh wait... — You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#3509 (comment) < https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/issues/3509#issuecomment-841711088

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China dominating in just about anything they try: [image: image] < https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/6943970/118405211-b70c4c80-b644-11eb-9dfe-5e262f408d0a.png

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[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

And you wonder why I gave up on Chia...

On Sun, May 16, 2021, 1:07 PM haptikfeedback @.***> wrote:

Which is fine with me - but the method at which chia pays out is now broken. Those guys basically own 50%. So their chance to win is 50% and if they have the oldest plots, it increases their odds even further.

On Sun, May 16, 2021, 10:05 AM M1dn1ght N1nj4 @.***> wrote:

So china owns Chia, basically....

On Sun, May 16, 2021, 12:47 PM ronjonz @.***> wrote:

I take HUGE issue with whoever this #1 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/1 farmer is. The discrepancy between #1 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/1 and #2 https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/pull/2 is FAR too big to be realistic. That's why I say that almost all the rewards are going to ONE address. Whoever it is, is likely a massive data center, with millions of dollars of equipment, something the rest of us will never be able to beat. That address needs to be taken offline, so the rest of us actually have a chance to get ANYTHING at all. You wonder why you're spending a ton of money on hardware, with essentially zero return? Yeah, it's that guy. You don't stand a chance. This whole crypto has become a joke. Worse of a joke than Doge. Why would I contribute to something with my own money, only to constantly go in DEBT just running it? It's stupid. … <#m6824251450173915484> On Sat, May 15, 2021 at 3:16 PM fullet-tortuga @.***> wrote: One could think some hardware manufactures would be behind the whole thing. What could be next? Sell more graphics cards? Oh wait... — You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#3509 (comment) <

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China dominating in just about anything they try: [image: image] <

https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/6943970/118405211-b70c4c80-b644-11eb-9dfe-5e262f408d0a.png

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[ronjonz]

Yea, I think the decentralized vision of this currency may have been a bit short-sighted. But to be clear, both of those top farmers are unofficial pools based in China, but their makeup is probably international, including a ton of American Chia farmers. They joined these pools, because at least they could get incremental XCH for their farming efforts. Even, as a small solo farmer, I think you should get some small portion of farming credit just for keeping your farming up 7/24 and participating in the Chia Blockchain system. But just my IMO.

[juggernog20]

Am I missing something here? All of these chia profit calculators screenshots posted here used extremely high growth rates, which, at first glance appears warranted given the growth rates we've seen. However, if you look closer you can see the gigantic growth predictions it makes for even months down the road.

Is the netspace really going to hit a ZiB by August and 3 ZiB by October????? If so then yeah it looks like a pretty tough situation. But given the Devs view on this, it seems to me that these projections are way overblown, and making everyone panic that they won't make any money.

[danielnrubens]

Again, a lot of people aren’t using that calculator properly (some are) and you seem to have cherry picked the former. My calculations are based on the current 95% exponential growth at 10 days (reasonable) with stabilized daily growth of half an exabyte. Rerun the calculator and tell me how optimistic you are for someone starting out now.

[juggernog20]

Again, a lot of people aren’t using that calculator properly (some are) and you seem to have cherry picked the former. My calculations are based on the current 95% exponential growth at 10 days (reasonable) with stabilized daily growth of half an exabyte. Rerun the calculator and tell me how optimistic you are for someone starting out now.

Your 95% growth rate for 10 days still has the network space hitting 1 ZiB by July.

Here's how I see it playing out: https://chiacalculator.com?growth=1.0787511569066228&growth_days=21&inf_growth=0&inf_plots=0&init_plots=0&linear_growth=536870912&max_plots=204800&plot_speed=8192&stab_days=30&start=today&tab=1&time_frame=1095

Just my opinion

[danielnrubens]

Your estimate is reasonable. I don’t think zettabytes are off the table though, we haven’t even started official pooling. Your projection puts ROI on hardware at 1 year, with another ~$3K total profit over the following two years. All this is if the coin stays at current market value. Whether that’s a reasonable return for someone is up to them. It’s just important people are informed rather than FOMOing in. I think that’s the purpose of this thread. Exponential growth could continue, indicated by historical data.

[juggernog20]

Your estimate is reasonable. I don’t think zettabytes are off the table though, we haven’t even started official pooling. Your projection puts ROI on hardware at 1 year, with another ~$3K total profit over the following two years. All this is if the coin stays at current market value. Whether that’s a reasonable return for someone is up to them. It’s just important people are informed rather than FOMOing in. I think that’s the purpose of this thread. Exponential growth could continue, indicated by historical data.

Completely agree with this post. The times where you'll make $200k/yr or anything close to that with Chia are behind us. If you want a quick ROI and get out then not a worthy investment for you. Personally, I believe in the tech and Devs, and see good things for Chia coming up, so I'll hold. I just have an issue with the people that use the calculator and are like "look you're only going to make $1k on a $5k investment I'm out", which scares everyone from what I think is still a good opportunity. As with many things in life, the answer lies somewhere in the middle. My 2 cents

[f1cringe]

There is a fundamental misunderstanding about how farming in chia actually works. Your reward is directly proportional to the percentage of netspace you own. There are no economies of scale at play here. If you Mine bitcoin by yourself with a single GPU you will likely never win a single block. However with Chia you will eventually win even if it takes a long time. I get that people are frustrated about the growth of the netspace and their own chances diminishing. But no one owes you a thing in a decentralised system. Keep plotting with what you have, dont make huge investments and you will eventually win some chia.

If that is not what you want, I understand and you may be better off buying chia once the transactions go live today. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. This is a new way of decentralising transacitions and smart contracts, if you dont want to be a part of that, thats fine. The price of chia will take a while to increase, you are not missing out just because you dont have 1000 chia from the start.

yeah keep saying that buddy china is pumping out 100 petabyte farms daily

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

Exactly. China basically owns Chia at this point. Go invest your time and money elsewhere. This is all but a lost cause if you're not part of HPOOL or haven't been farming since genesis.

On Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:12 AM f1cringe @.***> wrote:

There is a fundamental misunderstanding about how farming in chia actually works. Your reward is directly proportional to the percentage of netspace you own. There are no economies of scale at play here. If you Mine bitcoin by yourself with a single GPU you will likely never win a single block. However with Chia you will eventually win even if it takes a long time. I get that people are frustrated about the growth of the netspace and their own chances diminishing. But no one owes you a thing in a decentralised system. Keep plotting with what you have, dont make huge investments and you will eventually win some chia.

If that is not what you want, I understand and you may be better off buying chia once the transactions go live today. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. This is a new way of decentralising transacitions and smart contracts, if you dont want to be a part of that, thats fine. The price of chia will take a while to increase, you are not missing out just because you dont have 1000 chia from the start.

yeah keep saying that buddy china is pumping out 100 petabyte farms daily

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[t0mZ4]

Exactly. China basically owns Chia at this point. Go invest your time and money elsewhere. This is all but a lost cause if you're not part of HPOOL or haven't been farming since genesis.

you don't think the pooling protocol will allow small farmers 10-100TB to gain some profits?

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

No, I don't. That's just wishful thinking, IMO. And I don't see any theoretical "official" pools taking over from HPOOL.

On Mon, May 17, 2021, 1:06 AM t0mmyz7 @.***> wrote:

Exactly. China basically owns Chia at this point. Go invest your time and money elsewhere. This is all but a lost cause if you're not part of HPOOL or haven't been farming since genesis. … <#m5801246709446494833> On Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:12 AM f1cringe @.***> wrote: There is a fundamental misunderstanding about how farming in chia actually works. Your reward is directly proportional to the percentage of netspace you own. There are no economies of scale at play here. If you Mine bitcoin by yourself with a single GPU you will likely never win a single block. However with Chia you will eventually win even if it takes a long time. I get that people are frustrated about the growth of the netspace and their own chances diminishing. But no one owes you a thing in a decentralised system. Keep plotting with what you have, dont make huge investments and you will eventually win some chia. If that is not what you want, I understand and you may be better off buying chia once the transactions go live today. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. This is a new way of decentralising transacitions and smart contracts, if you dont want to be a part of that, thats fine. The price of chia will take a while to increase, you are not missing out just because you dont have 1000 chia from the start. yeah keep saying that buddy china is pumping out 100 petabyte farms daily — You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#3509 (comment) https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/issues/3509#issuecomment-841970357>, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AJXLIJZK4POXNDQTNNEHLT3TOCJTBANCNFSM44AMETVQ .

you don't think the pooling protocol will allow small farmers 10-100TB to gain some profits?

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[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

At least not in any meaningful amount, no. I'm curious, what is everyone considering to be a "small farmer"?

On Mon, May 17, 2021, 1:46 AM M1dn1ght N1nj4 @.***> wrote:

No, I don't. That's just wishful thinking, IMO. And I don't see any theoretical "official" pools taking over from HPOOL.

On Mon, May 17, 2021, 1:06 AM t0mmyz7 @.***> wrote:

Exactly. China basically owns Chia at this point. Go invest your time and money elsewhere. This is all but a lost cause if you're not part of HPOOL or haven't been farming since genesis. … <#m_7713614790256520043_m5801246709446494833> On Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:12 AM f1cringe @.***> wrote: There is a fundamental misunderstanding about how farming in chia actually works. Your reward is directly proportional to the percentage of netspace you own. There are no economies of scale at play here. If you Mine bitcoin by yourself with a single GPU you will likely never win a single block. However with Chia you will eventually win even if it takes a long time. I get that people are frustrated about the growth of the netspace and their own chances diminishing. But no one owes you a thing in a decentralised system. Keep plotting with what you have, dont make huge investments and you will eventually win some chia. If that is not what you want, I understand and you may be better off buying chia once the transactions go live today. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. This is a new way of decentralising transacitions and smart contracts, if you dont want to be a part of that, thats fine. The price of chia will take a while to increase, you are not missing out just because you dont have 1000 chia from the start. yeah keep saying that buddy china is pumping out 100 petabyte farms daily — You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <#3509 (comment) https://github.com/Chia-Network/chia-blockchain/issues/3509#issuecomment-841970357>, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AJXLIJZK4POXNDQTNNEHLT3TOCJTBANCNFSM44AMETVQ .

you don't think the pooling protocol will allow small farmers 10-100TB to gain some profits?

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[danielnrubens]

I think Bram said in an AMA under 1PB was a small farmer 🙂

https://www.reddit.com/r/chia/comments/n41smk/a_small_farmer_defined_by_bram_cohen_is_owning/

[M1dn1ghtN1nj4]

Great, so if I'd stuck with Chia, I'd be a "small farmer" for the rest of my life. 😂

On Mon, May 17, 2021, 1:50 AM subVRSE @.***> wrote:

I think Bram said in an AMA under 1PB was a small farmer 🙂

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[juggernog20]

Great, so if I'd stuck with Chia, I'd be a "small farmer" for the rest of my life. 😂

As opposed to all the other cryptocurrencies you'd be a "big miner" on?

[juggernog20]

The amount of entitlement on here is exhausting. Regardless of how big HPOOL is or what happens after pooling protocol, there is still money to be made, at least back to ROI and then some. Everyone on here saying Chia is done because they can't earn $200k/year on their 50TB setup. Sheesh