Open michellesculley opened 7 months ago
michellesculley
commented
7 months ago Per our meeting today: Fmsy and Constant catch 2400 mt at both recruitment = S/R curve and average of last 20 years (Low recruitment scenario) for a total of four models to compare.
michellesculley
commented
7 months ago The respective SS3 runs are now on the repository, they will need to be unzipped before they are used - note each scenarios is >1 GB of files.
michellesculley
commented
7 months ago The zip files containing the SS3 files are too large for the repository. So I have uploaded a summary csv file for Catch and SSB (mean and SD) by year for each scenario. @JonBrodziak If there is any other data you would like pulled from the report files let me know and I'll pull it into a csv.
JonBrodziak
commented
7 months ago I am testing the AGEPRO low recruitment and constant catch at 2400 mt projection versus the corresponding bootstrapped SS3 deterministic projections. The mean SSBs line up but are slightly lower than expected. But the SS3 mean catches appear to be biased low by about 100 mt versus the 2400 mt catch.
The LowCatch_Mean and SRCatch_Mean columns in SS3_Catch_Projections.csv show average catches of a little less than 2300 mt for the two 2400 mt catch scenarios (table below): (i) Low recruitment and 2400 mt catch (ii) SR-based recruitment and 2400 mt catch
Is this a feature of the SS3 deterministic projections with bootstrapped initial population size at age?
It would seem that these mean catch series for SS3 would be closer to 2400 mt with their associated standard errors based on bootstrap uncertainty listed below, noting that some bootstrapped initial population trajectories might be too small to support a 2400 mt constant catch. The corresponding AGEPRO results remove 2400 mt each year with no variation and no infeasible trajectories, for comparison.
LowCatch_Mean LowCatch_SD SRCatch_Mean SRCatch_SD Year 2297.8 8.1 2282.1 147.0 2021 2272.2 204.3 2277.0 154.3 2022 2297.4 7.7 2299.6 2.6 2023 2271.8 206.4 2299.9 0.5 2024 2296.4 11.8 2282.3 163.4 2025 2296.9 10.1 2299.5 3.3 2026 2268.7 235.2 2280.4 180.7 2027 2297.7 6.6 2299.8 1.1 2028 2273.2 173.5 2280.4 130.7 2029 2297.6 6.6 2277.9 204.7 2030 Is it possible these SS3 constant catch results are for 2300 mt, noting I did not check the Projections/2300 folder ?
Thanks, Jon
On Mon, Jan 22, 2024 at 9:13 AM Michelle Sculley @.***> wrote:
The zip files containing the SS3 files are too large for the repository. So I have uploaded a summary csv file for Catch and SSB (mean and SD) by year for each scenario. @JonBrodziak https://github.com/JonBrodziak If there is any other data you would like pulled from the report files let me know and I'll pull it into a csv.
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michellesculley
commented
7 months ago Yes you are absolutely correct. The projections are all for 2300 mt/yr.
JonBrodziak
commented
7 months ago Ok, thanks for the clarification.
On Tue, Jan 23, 2024 at 12:08 PM Michelle Sculley @.***> wrote:
Yes you are absolutely correct. The projections are all for 2300 mt/yr.
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“Wherever my travels may lead, paradise is where I am.” ~ Voltaire
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Need to provide the fully bootstrapped SS3 projections. Bootstraps are currently run for constant catch at status quo (2400mt per year). @JonBrodziak Are there other runs we would like to compare? F runs? Constant catch at other levels?