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thinking frameworks 思维的框架 #4

Open YuezhenQin opened 2 months ago

YuezhenQin commented 2 months ago
  1. Map is not the territory
  2. In a circle of competence
  3. First Principle Thinking 第一性原理
  4. Thought Experiment
  5. Order Thinking: "1h/1m/1y 之后呢?"
  6. Probabilistic Thinking: 贝叶斯, FT curve
  7. Inversion: DO right things - NOT DO wrong things
  8. Occam’s Razor
  9. Hanlon’s Razor

source: https://fs.blog/mental-models/

YuezhenQin commented 2 months ago

1. Mistaking the map for the territory 地图不是疆域

The map–territory relation is the relationship between an object and a representation of that object, as in the relation between a geographical territory and a map of it. Mistaking the map for the territory is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone confuses the semantics of a term with what it represents.

1931年,在美国路易斯安那州,哲学家 Alfred Korzybski 发表了一篇论文,其中阐述了地图与疆域的关系,下面的原文:

A.) A map may have a structure similar or different to the structure of the territory. 地图与疆域有相似之处也有不同之处 B.) Two similar structures have similar logical characteristics. Thus, if in a correct map, Dresden is given as between Paris and Warsaw, a similar relation is found in the actual territory. 一对相似的结构有相似的逻辑特征,例如,对于一个正确的地图,山东济南在北京和上海之间。这个关系与现实的地理位置是相符的。 C.) A map is not the actual territory. 地图不是疆域 D.) An ideal map would contain the map of the map, the map of the map of the map, etc., endlessly…We may call this characteristic self-reflexiveness. 一个完美的地图应该包括现实中的所有信息,完美地图中的地图仍然具有地图,然后这个地图还包括着地图,如此无限下去,这种特征成为自反性。

上文出现的“疆域”指事物本身,而“地图”指的是人对事物的感知,理解和描述;简单来说就是抽象理解过的世界就不是世界本身。一个完美的地图,应该包含与现实相同的所有信息。但如果真的有这样的地图,那么地图本身对人类就没有意义。因为完全复制一个世界不会对我们了解世界有任何帮助,反而还加大了工作量。

人是如何理解世界的?

“地图”之所以重要,因为人就是使用同样的方式来理解世界。人类大脑通过抽象简化人体器官获取的外部信息来理解外部环境,而这个过程就像绘制地图一样,虽然和真实世界不完全相同,但其中部分逻辑结构是相同的,就像之前的原文提到的例子,山东济南与北京和上海之间的关系。

模型的局限性

为了解决现实中的问题,大脑会绘制一个与现实相近的“地图”,然后尝试了解它。这个过程可以理解为抽象,也是人处理现实复杂问题的唯一方法。在日常生活中这个过程无时无刻不在发生,但正是因为这样的情况很多,人也习惯了在遇到问题之后立刻套用模型,不会过多考虑这个模型是否正确。这就造成拿了不合适的模型来解决问题,造成了不好的结果。开头提到的 Ron Johnson 就是犯了这样的错误。

之所以将地图不是疆域作为学习思维模型的第一个,是为了提醒自己明白思维模型的局限,它不是万能钥匙,它也有自己的能力局限。只有正确地认识到思维模型的局限,才能发挥出它们本身的功能。同样的,也只有了解了自己思维的局限,才有改进思维的动力和方向。

YuezhenQin commented 2 months ago

2. A circle of competence

A circle of competence is the subject area which matches a person's knowledge or skills.

The concept was developed by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger as what they call a mental model.

To improve the odds of success in life and work, understand the perimeter of your circle of competence and operate well inside. Over time, study and work to expand that circle, but don’t fool yourself about where the perimeter is, and never be afraid to say, “I don’t know.”

YuezhenQin commented 2 months ago

Probabilistic Thinking

The lack of perfect information about the world gives rise to all of probability theory, and its usefulness.