Compare sum of forecasts customers vs forecast of sum customers

[JanMaartenvanDoorn]

Definition of ready:

• https://github.com/alliander-opensource/AIFES/issues/48
• https://github.com/alliander-opensource/AIFES/issues/49

Why/What:

• We investigated forecasting the sum of measurements vs summing the forecasts of the individual measurements here https://github.com/alliander-opensource/AIFES/blob/179718f5850d2f87f42cc9d5ab95ca2714d34071/project/03.Compare_Sum_of_Forecasts_to_Forecast_of_sum.ipynb. Compare_Sum_of_Forecasts_to_Forecast_of_sum.ipynb . The results were inconclusive, to further investigate we go one level deeper: forecasting the individual (large company) customers and see if this yield clear results

How:

• Repeat analysis
• Do analysis for Middenmeer and Wieringerwerf
• Instead of measurements of fields, use the measurements of large customers.
  • The total load consists of the sum of the load of large customers and the residual load of customers who are too small for C-ARM.
• Compare and draw conclusions

Result:

• Notebook with comparison
• Conclusions which strategy works best