Coup forecasts

Code and data to create the coup forecasts at https://www.predictiveheuristics.com/forecasts.

This repo is organized around tasks:

• data-sources/: input data source-specific code that cleans and imputes
• make-data/: combine various data sources to create the full dataset
• models: modeling-related things, including tuning experiments and the forecast models
• website: makes the website

Each task folder is self-contained. It will not draw on files from other folders, and output that serves as input for another task (e.g. data-sources creates data pieces that serve as input for make-data) is not automatically copied over. But each task folder has as needed an update-inputs.R script that will do the relevant copying over.

License

The forecasts are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0). The underlying code and data transformations are licensed under a MIT license.