NOTE: This project has been succeeded by Feesim.
bitcoin-feemodel (unreleased)
Model-based transaction fee estimation; this is a work in progress.
The general approach is:
- Model a miner's transaction selection policy as greedily adding txs
according to feerate until max block size or min fee rate has been reached,
whichever is earlier.
- Model the transaction arrivals as a poisson process, with each
transaction having (feerate, size) independently drawn from a certain
joint distribution.
- Estimate the model parameters and run a simulation to obtain the metrics of
interest e.g. the wait / confirmation time of a transaction as a function of
its fee rate.