Pandemic models and proposals for next waves
Drafting preliminary notes here.
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Preparing proposal for urgent public announcement of preparations to roll out capability to offer separate short term Quarantine Accomodation for large numbers of mild and moderately ill covid-19 patients for whom emergency expanded Hospital beds for the severely ill and Home isolation is not appropriate (eg living together with vulnerable people and/or essential workers).
This also relates to further expanding long term accommodation (until vaccines hoped for in 12-18 months) to reduce death among vulnerable people currently in households with others when tight restrictions are loosened for others between successive outbreaks following first peak.
Further relates to preparing workforce currently told to "stay at home" for vital assistance to less developed places with much worse crisis.
This repo is only for work on above.
Here is an extensive global list of open source projects related to covid-19
Above "immediate focus" currently deferred because:
Only relevant for a "reasonable worst case" in which peak demand and/or ramp rate for Quarantine accomodation exceeds easily available supply from empty hotels and student housing.
Announcements re "medi-hotels" imply anything much less than item 1 won't need any proposal from here. https://tas.ama.com.au/tas/home-isolation-of-positive-cases https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/medi-hotels-instead-of-home-isolation-for-mild-covid-19-patients-20200413-p54jfc.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed
There is an Imperial College report on planning hospital capacity that will make it easier to plan for ramp up of Quarantine accommodation too:
Meanwhile I am studying and hope to add some notes on related topics:
Current expectactions based on "nowcasting" from Doherty Institute eg update linked from here: https://health.govcms.gov.au/resources/publications/update-modelling-the-current-impact-of-covid-19-in-australia https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-australian-parliament-house-act-240420 https://health.govcms.gov.au/news/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc-coronavirus-covid-19-statement-on-16-april-2020 https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_weekly_epidemiology_reports_australia_2020.htm
The closely related topics of reopening schools, testing,tracing and transmission. Some initial references are in Schools and TTT
Read the following links carefully first:
https://www.health.gov.au/news/modelling-how-covid-19-could-affect-australia
As well as papers on the actual models the Doherty Institute page includes a short video with explanations from the two lead authors that should also be studied carefully. If anyone can get a transcript from the closed captions please do provide it. I don’t have time but it is worth quoting. Ends with:
Doherty Institute modelers are “now in transition from scenario analysis to data science driven situational awareness”
https://youtu.be/rhNrhGMog38 via https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/covid-19-modelling-papers (which also links two papers)
The above links are central to any work done here and greatly simplify what needs to be said and done. Work towards preparing supporting documents to persuade relevant people to say and do should start from material at above links.
This work also includes analysis of who to contact and how to reach them.
Initiative is from Melbourne, Victoria, Australia but will also be directly relevant to other States and New Zealand.
Unlikely to be immediately relevant in places where health system already facing actual collapse.