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ecwood / GCAM-CDR-modeling

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Improve Assumptions About Inflation Rate #31

Open ecwood opened 1 year ago

ecwood commented 1 year ago

Currently, I've been assuming the average US inflation rate as 3.8% based on this source.

@celinasb recommended looking at the inflation rates from 2005-2022 to get the average rate, to get a more recent average that considers 2008.

ecwood commented 1 year ago

Using https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, we get this table:

Year Inflation Rate
2005 2.2
2006 2.5
2007 2.3
2008 2.3
2009 1.7
2010 1
2011 1.7
2012 2.1
2013 1.8
2014 1.7
2015 1.8
2016 2.2
2017 1.8
2018 2.1
2019 2.2
2020 1.7
2021 3.6
Average 2.041176471
ecwood commented 1 year ago

Here is what the S.2118 subsidy looks like with an assumed 2.041176471% inflation rate. Here is the command used to generate this:

python3 generate_45Q_policy.py --initialValue 175 --interestRate 0.02041176471 --startingYear 2020 --outputPriceYear 1975 --outputPriceSizeUnit kg --scenarioName S.2118 --subsidyName DAC-subsidy s2118_auto.xml
Year Subsidy (1975$/kg)
2020 0.11637207634676279
2025 0.12874372445070809
2030 0.14243061656861922
2035 0.15757257779103698
2040 0.17432429817328213
2045 0.19285691304680783
2050 0.2133597513352531
2055 0.23604226973596953
2060 0.26113619252659087
2065 0.2888978788568783
2070 0.31961094171006116
2075 0.3535891452889427
2080 0.3911796104264265
2085 0.4327663607668899
2090 0.4787742459461418
2095 0.529673281849115
2100 0.5859834522853014