Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR)

Requirements

The program is developed in Ruby, and the scripts to run it are Unix scripts using /bin/sh.

Installation

You can install this program by cloning this repository, and then executing the commands from the following sections in the directory where it got cloned.

Latest Release

The latest release is a beta version, and has version number 0.1b1. Use the tag v0.1b1 to check it out after you've cloned the repository, and build and install the program using the following commands:

sudo gem build sapor.gemspec 
sudo gem install sapor-0.1b1.gem 

bin/create_installation_package.sh 
tar -xzf sapor-0.1b1.tar.gz
cd sapor-0.1b1/
sudo ./install.sh

Snapshot

The most recent version, currently under development, is an alpha version. It resides in the master branch, and has version number 0.2a1. You can build it using the following commands:

sudo gem build sapor.gemspec 
sudo gem install sapor-0.2a1.gem 

bin/create_installation_package.sh 
tar -xzf sapor-0.2a1.tar.gz
cd sapor-0.2a1/
sudo ./install.sh

Usage

Simply call sapor or sapor help to get instructions on how to use the program.

Examples

See this page.

Technical Documentation

See this page.

Changelog

Version 0.2

• Included more data in the calculation of the error estimate.
• Added the Type field with values Election and Referendum. Polls of type Referendum do not try to calculate a seat distribution.
• Areas: Added Flanders.
• Areas: Added Greece with a simplified approach to the parliamentary elections.
• Areas: Added Norwegian municipalities Oslo, Bergen and Trondheim, local election, 2015.

Version 0.1

• First round analysis of poll results as a set of dichotomies, reporting on the most probable fraction, the 95% confidence interval for the vote share, and probability to reach a threshold.
• Second round analysis of poll results as a polychotomy, reporting on the most probable fraction, the most probable rounded fraction, the 95% confidence interval for the vote share, the probability to be larger than the next party, the 95% confidence interval for the number of seats in parliament, and for coalitions the most probable fraction, the most probable rounded fraction, the 95% confidence interval for the vote share, the probability to have a majority of the popular vote (vote share larger than 50%), the 95% confidence interval for the number of seats and the probability to have a majority in parliament.
• Areas: Catalan parliamentary election, 2015.

License

Statistical Analysis of Polling Results (SAPoR) Copyright (C) 2020 Filip van Laenen f.a.vanlaenen@ieee.org

This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation; either version 2 of the License, or (at your option) any later version.

This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details.

You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License along with this program; if not, write to the Free Software Foundation, Inc., 51 Franklin Street, Fifth Floor, Boston, MA 02110-1301 USA.