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grattan / covid19.model.sa2

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Lower resistance threshold for children #61

Closed wfmackey closed 4 years ago

wfmackey commented 4 years ago

To acknowledge lower risk of infection for children, correlate an individual's resistance with their age. Use household cluster analysis:

https://journals.lww.com/pidj/Abstract/9000/The_Role_of_Children_in_the_Dynamics_of_Intra.96128.aspx

  1. In 21 out of 36 adults (>18 years) (58.3%).
  2. In 13 of 40 children, 5–17 years (32.5%), (P = 0.037 for the difference between group 1 and group 2, risk ratio: 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39–0.96).
  3. In 2 of 18 children, 0–4 (<5) years of age (11.8%), (P < 0.002 for the difference between group 1 and group 3, risk ratio: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.30–0.71).
HughParsonage commented 4 years ago

Hmm I was actually just looking at age-based infection ratios. Those CI's don't look convincing though.

wfmackey commented 4 years ago

I think using something like a 1:0.5:0.2 resistance ratios for adults, 5-17 year olds and < 5 year olds would be better than our current 1:1:1?

HughParsonage commented 4 years ago

Is it 5-17 year olds are 61% "less" likely (abstract) or 61% "as" likely (your excerpt)?

wfmackey commented 4 years ago

Noting that there is no statistical difference between young and older children, we can say that children (17 and younger) have about half the risk of infection as adults.

wfmackey commented 4 years ago

@HughParsonage was this implemented -- if so, what are the rates?