This repository provides all the necessary information to replicate the Justin Klip and Dhruv Gupta's USA election forecast paper. It has the code, paper itself, and the necessary data.
The repo is structured as:
data/raw_data contains the raw data as obtained from 538.data/analysis_data contains the cleaned dataset that was constructed.model contains fitted models. other contains details about LLM chat interactions and sketches.paper contains the files used to generate the paper, including the Quarto document and reference bibliography file, as well as the PDF of the paper. scripts contains the R scripts used to simulate, download and clean data.A lot of the code was written with the help of ChatGPT4 and ChatGPT40; the entire chat history is available in inputs/llms/usage.txt.