The AI Forecasting Resolution Dictionary is a set of standards and conventions for precisely interpreting AI and auxiliary terms.
The future is big. To model and forecast it, we’re going to need to put probabilities on a lot of questions.
The AI Dictionary is one piece of the puzzle for improving discussions about the future of AI, and for assisting comparability of different forecasts or elicitations. This is critical for improving collaboration, and for unlocking economies-of-scale for AI forecasting.
When writers don’t have to reinvent the wheel whenever they operationalise a new thought, and forecasters can reduce the drag of constantly interpreting new resolutions, we can both generate and answer more questions.
Capturing what matters in a detailed, technical question is hard. We can make that high initial cost worth it by ensuring it is broadly used and built upon.
Drawing upon best practices for software version management, we can allow resolution conditions that change and improve over time while maintaining the precision necessary for quantitative reasoning.
Simply write a question relying on definitions from the Dictionary, and appending the tag [ai-dict-vX.Y.Z] at the end of the relevant string, or somewhere in an accompanying description.
For example:
I predict that image classification will be made robust against adversarial examples by 2023. [ai-dict-v2]
Will there be a superhuman Starcraft agent trained using less than $10.000 of publicly available compute by 2025? [ai-dict-v1.0.4]
More details can be found here.
The Dictionary is © 2019 by Parallel, LLC.
The Dictionary is distributed by an MIT license.
We welcome contributions, as long as they follow our guidelines. You can do so via:
You can also check out the Open Problems for discussion of more high-level design issues.
Reach out at hello@parallelforecast.com.
[^1]: Please note that we do not ensure the Google Doc version is up-to-date, and is not as easily maintained using Semantic Versioning. It should merely be treated as a convenient method for discussing dictionary terms, and not a resolution source.