Believing true things and measuring what we care about is hard. The power of web programming can help forecasters, analysts, philosophers, and philanthropists coordinate on what they believe and value, identify disagreements, communicate with peers and the general public, make bets, and update their worldviews in response to evidence.
It would be nice if Alice and Bob had agreed to use a set of input variables, such as background quantities like the state of a manifold market on some ML benchmark or a global count of malaria cases. This set of input variables can also be a worldview, or quantities which upon inspection are also squiggle estimates. Then, it would be nice to be able to trivially substitute these input worldviews, if you want to look at how you expect your cost-effectiveness analysis to change over time or if you think Bob has a more calibrated background worldview but prefer Alice's fermstimate of charity C's impact.
quinn-dougherty
commented
11 months ago
loosely depends on https://github.com/quinn-dougherty/epistemics-ux-projects/issues/2, I would guess?
It would be nice if Alice and Bob had agreed to use a set of input variables, such as background quantities like the state of a manifold market on some ML benchmark or a global count of malaria cases. This set of input variables can also be a worldview, or quantities which upon inspection are also squiggle estimates. Then, it would be nice to be able to trivially substitute these input worldviews, if you want to look at how you expect your cost-effectiveness analysis to change over time or if you think Bob has a more calibrated background worldview but prefer Alice's fermstimate of charity C's impact.