Ignoring a Common Cause: пример

[ub]

Пример на русском неочевиден, IMHO

"В Детройте выросла преступность и упали цены на недвижимость. Преступность снижает цены домов, и если мы её победим, то цены снова вырастут."

[alina1412]

http://www.zionism-israel.com/Fallacies/ignoring-a-common-cause.html Example #1:

One day Bill wakes up with a fever. A few hours later he finds that his muscles are sore. He concludes that the fever must have caused the soreness. His friend insists that the soreness and the fever are caused by some microbe. Bill laughs at this and insists that if he spends the day in a tub of cold water his soreness will go away.

Example #2:

Over the course of several weeks the leaves from the trees along the Wombat river fell into the water. Shortly thereafter, many dead fish were seen floating in the river. When the EPA investigated, the owners of the Wombat River Chemical Company claimed that is it was obvious that the leaves had killed the fish. Many local environmentalists claimed that the chemical plant’s toxic wastes caused both the trees and the fish to die and that the leaves had no real effect on the fish.

Example #3:

A thunderstorm wakes Joe up in the middle of the night. He goes downstairs to get some milk to help him get back to sleep. On the way to the refrigerator, he notices that the barometer has fallen a great deal. Joe concludes that the storm caused the barometer to fall. In the morning he tells his wife about his conclusion. She tells him that it was a drop in atmospheric pressure that caused the barometer to drop and the storm.

[alina1412]

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Pointing to a fancy chart, Roger shows how temperatures have been rising over the past few centuries, whilst at the same time the numbers of pirates have been decreasing; thus pirates cool the world and global warming is a hoax.

По графику видно, как температура растет на протяжении последних столетий, и в то же время численность пиратов убывает. Значит, пираты охлаждают мир (и глобальное потепление является обманом)