wikpur / Spacial-Econometrics-Project

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Spacial-Econometrics-Project

The aim of this project is to analyze whether there are any spatial trends and patterns of the property crimes in Poland in regards to the Pomeranian voivodeship and it’s counties and explores how socio-economic characteristics - unemployment rate, social services, average gross monthly salary, population density and international migrations affect crime rates with consideration of the geographic context across Pomeranian voivodeship and distinguish the clusters with the highest amount of that kind of crimes in 2018. It is assumed that the number of crimes committed is directly proportional to the population density of cities, meaning we expect a greater number of thefts in larger urban areas. We also assume that there is direct proportional relationship between unemployment rate and crimes against property (the higher rate of unemployment, the higher amount of crimes against property), direct proportional relationship between social services and crimes against property (the higher rate of social services, the higher amount of crimes against property) inverse relationship between average gross monthly salary and crimes against property (the higher amount of average gross monthly salary, the lower amount of crimes against property). What should be taken into consideration during examination is that Polish law indicates that theft with a value not exceeding 500 PLN is considered a misdemeanor, not a crime. Reporting such theft will not be considered or processed, so there is no point in reporting them. Such a situation causes a disturbance between the actual amount of thefts and the recorded ones, since people has no incentive to report a theft under 500 PLN.