This repo aims to build a linear, or generalized linear, model to forecast the winner of the upcoming US presidential election using “poll-of-polls” and write a story from the observations.
The repo is structured as:
data/raw_data contains the raw data as obtained from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ following Data Retrieval procedures. data/analysis_data contains the cleaned dataset that was constructed.model contains fitted models. other contains relevant literature, details about LLM chat interactions, and sketches.paper contains the files used to generate the paper, including the Quarto document and reference bibliography file, as well as the PDF of the paper. scripts contains the R scripts used to simulate, download and clean data.Data about polling outcomes from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/. On the page, search for “Download the data”, then select Presidential general election polls (current cycle), then click Download.
Aspects of the code were written with the help of ChatGPT. The entire chat history is available in inputs/llms/usage.txt.